The first test flight of the Japanese experimental fighter X-2 conducted on April 22, 2106 did not go unnoticed by the mass media. The aircraft is a brainchild of one of the divisions of Mitsubishi Corporation. For the record: during WWII this corporation made a name by producing its famous A6M Zero fighter which dominated the sky over the Pacific Ocean for the first two years of the war.
Characteristics of X-2 and political implications associated with the development of the fighter, as well as with its inaugural appearance “in public”, are being widely discussed.
Of course, at this juncture it is still only a demonstrator and research prototype, which will be used to hone the low observable (stealth) technology and other technological advanced characteristics of the fifth-generation jet fighters.
As for the political implications of the maiden flight of X-2, it can be considered an important evidence attesting to Japan’s intention to reinforce its status of a member of an “elite club” of leading powers developing advanced warcrafts.
Experts recall in this connection that Japan has been trying to tap into the combat, service and technological specifications of the American F-22 (the only fifth-generation fighter available at that time) since 2006-2007, when it first approached the US with a proposal to purchase the warcraft and organize its licensed production. The US Department of State, however, disapproved of the deal saying that exports of the highly advanced F-22 were prohibited by law. Apparently, the law could have been amended to allow the exports of “a simplified version” of F-22 to Japan “as an exception.”
However, there was a political implication that compelled the US State Department to block the transaction: South Korea’s harsh criticism of the deal. A possibility of acquisition of F-22 by Japan sparked heated discussions that revealed the depth of disagreement between Japan and South Korea—a problem that remains a source of a headache for Washington till this day.
In 2007, i.e. immediately after the US refused the F-22 deal, Japan announced its intention to launch the so-called Advanced Technology Demonstrator-X, ATD-X development program. The X-2 fighter that took to the skies on April 22 represents the first tangible result of implementation of this program.
However, its future fate will depend on the development of another program, according to which, starting in 2016, Japanese Air Self-Defense Force will receive 42 F-35 fifth-generation fighter bombers designed and manufactured by Lockheed Martin in partnership with Mitsubishi Corporation. It is expected that participation of the latter will be gradually increasing.
If the command of the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force decides in favor of F-35 despite the legacy of design failures, X-2 will most probably remain a “flying R&D” for the development of fighters of the sixth generation. If the command decides against F-35, X-2 will be used as a starting point for the development and production (as early as the beginning of the next decade) of a Japanese fifth-generation fighter (akin to Zero-2). The possibility of implementation of the project in partnership with some external partner is still under consideration.
The first flight of X-2 evoked mixed emotions in China (http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/979745.shtml). On the one hand, this event cannot but put China on alert.
On the other hand, so far (and it is quite obvious) Japan lags behind China in the degree of sophistication of modern warcrafts. The fact that fifth-generation fighters J-20 started entering Chinese Air Force service testifies to the China’s superiority in this field. Some speculate that Japan’s slow progress has to do with the fact that the US fears, first, to lose control over the process of rearmament of its key ally and, second, to receive a new powerful competitor on the international market of high-tech armaments.
Of course, Japan is taking just first steps as a supplier of arms, and as the results of an unprecedented in cost bidding for the supply of submarines to Australia show can receive a blow even when a deal seems to be almost sealed. As far as Tokyo is concerned, it sees political motives behind the decision of Australian government, which were discussed in one of the issues of NEO earlier.
Despite its failure Japan has all the chances of entering the international arms market in the near future. Most probably it will happen notably as Japanese-Indian relations continue to progress.
It seems quite reasonable to assume that Japanese government would have assessed the export potential of the costly ATD-X development program prior to its launching.
And finally, it would be hard not to notice that the initial flight of X-2 is fully in line with the general trend toward the militarization of the “set of tools” Japan employs in defending its interests on the international scene.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.“
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