Trumpanzee was yelling and screaming about fake polls again. It must be a conspiracy, though, because every poll from the right, the left and the nonpartisan ones say the same thing: Trumps the most reviled occupant of the Oval Office since the history of scientific polling. And all the polls also show that the voters plan to put a chain around his neck by electing a Democratic controlled Congress in 2018. Last week’s latest poll from Quinnipiac, for example, shows that Trump’s disapproval/approval rating is now 59/37% and that 62% of Americans find him dishonest as opposed to just 34% who find him truthful. 70% of voters say he’s not level-headed; only 28% say he is. When Quinnipiac asked “If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?” 53% answered the Democrats and just 37% answered the Republicans. The numbers in for the House were almost identical— 52% want to see the Democrats in charge an d just 37% want to see the Republicans in charge.So when the L.A. Times posed the question, White college grads' distaste for Trump hurt GOP in 2017. Will it flip control of Congress to Democrats in 2018?. The Washington Post was ready with an answer. Michael Finnegan at the Times: White college graduates in America’s suburbs have turned hard against Republicans in elections around the country and threaten to upend the party’s control of Congress in the 2018 midterm elections. Put off by Donald Trump’s presidency, they have been shunning Republicans in congressional and state legislative contests. Their support was crucial in electing Democrats as governor in Virginia and U.S. senator in conservative Alabama. Republican hopes for keeping control of the U.S. Senate next year will hinge on affluent, mainly white suburbs like Summerlin, Nev., where Trump’s unpopularity is weighing on GOP Sen. Dean Heller in his run for reelection.”
For now, the Trump backlash is endangering House Republican incumbents in well-off suburban districts nationwide, including more than a half dozen in Southern California. Republican Reps. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa and Darrell Issa of Vista are two of the Democrats’ top targets for 2018.It also puts at risk the Republicans’ one-vote majority in the Senate.…Part of what’s pushing white-collar suburban voters away from the GOP is Trump’s alliance with his party’s right wing on abortion, immigration and climate change, said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster who worked for former Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada.“The Republicans have become an anti-science, anti-fact, anti-immigrant, anti-cosmopolitan party, and that is just very unappealing to college-educated voters,” Mellman said.Republicans have also positioned themselves, he said, as “anti-diversity” in an era when college-educated whites have largely welcomed civil-rights advances for women, racial minorities and LGBTQ Americans.…Republicans acknowledge that suburban whites turned off by Trump pose a daunting challenge, especially when women, African Americans, Latinos and other core Democratic groups are highly motivated to vote.“I think it has more to do with reaction to who’s in the White House than anything else,” said GOP pollster Glen Bolger, who argues nothing is unusual about a party getting punished after its first two years in power.Trump’s unpopularity— about 38% of Americans approve of his job performance— is a boon to Democrats, but the economy’s strength gives him cover.
Karoun Demirjian, reporting for The Post, posited that “Republicans could easily lose their congressional majorities in 2018, two retiring GOP lawmakers warned Sunday, pointing to a lack of diversity in the party and President Trump’s pattern of catering to his narrow conservative base as likely harbingers of bad news for their party.” Flake and Dent, no fans of Trump, were the sources.
“When you look at some of the audiences cheering for Republicans sometimes, you look out there and you say, ‘Those are the spasms of a dying party,’ ” Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) said on ABC’s This Week. “By and large, we’re appealing to older white men, and there are just a limited number of them.”“Clearly the Republican Party, my party, is going to experience losses. It remains to be seen whether we’ll lose the majority,” Rep. Charlie Dent (PA) said, appearing on the same program. “I tell my colleagues, look, we’re going to be running into a head wind, you’ve got to be prepared for the worst. . . It’s going to be a very tough year.”
The tsunami that’s building now is going to sweep dozens of House Republican incumbents out of office, far more than the Democrats need to take control of that body. Voters want a check on Trump and they’re disgusted with Ryan and the Republicans in Congress. GOP members with huge war chests and years of incumbency won’t be able to count on either to protect them from the wrath of voters who are sick of Trump and sick of a Congress they see as enablers. Ryan will lead the House Republicans in one more trip— down the toilet. In many districts, he;'s even more toxic than Trump is and will be a bigger drag on the voting in 2018 for his members! Its unlikely he'll be able to hold onto his own seat.
