The US hopes to push Turkey to greater action against the Syrian regime and Russia in Syria’s northern Idlib provinceUS Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Jeffrey have been seeking to pivot the US back to a Turkey-first foreign policy in regards to Syria, to slowly jettison parts of what they see as the problematic Kurdish region of eastern Syria and get online with big power politics to confront the Russians and Iranians. Turkey’s goal since the election of US President Donald Trump was to get the US to abandon Kurdish partners in eastern Syria and pivot back to supporting Syrian rebels and Turkey. But Turkey hedged and also decided to work closely with Russia and Iran on the Astana peace process for Syria. Turkey also bought Russian air defense and Turkey and Russian leaders enjoyed smiles and ice cream in recent meetings.
Turkey did more then just buy Russian air defense. There's Turkstream. Russia building a nuclear power plant for Turkey. Banking deals. Etc., No mention of Libya? No offer from the US to stop aiding Haftar? Hmmmm.... A little carrot and a little stick. As always.
To bring back relations with Turkey the US may offer to incentivize it back into the F-35 program, or give it Patriot missiles to replace the S-400s, to fund Syrian refugees and rebels, to reduce US support for the SDF or enable a new Turkish operation in eastern Syria, or renew drone links to help Turkey carry out airstrikes on the Kurdistan Workers Party in Iraq, or reduce penalties associated with trade with Iran. There is no shortage of menu options, even if some of them take time to unravel the bureaucracy of.
The US ending the drone program was reported in the following report: JINSA Proposes US Military Forces Transfer from Turkey to Greece and/or Cyprus
Much depends on Turkey’s demands. Turkey has never wanted a conflict with the Syrian regime. It’s main goal was to defeat the Kurdish groups in Syria that it says are linked to the PKK. Idlib has always been a problem for Turkey because it is controlled by extremists but has numerous civilians who will demand entrance to Turkey if the regime takes Idlib. This puts Ankara in a tough spot. It can’t abandon Idlib. But it doesn’t want Idlib. Now that Turkish soldiers have been killed it can’t be seen to be walking away. But Turkey may not want to follow a US policy of increased confrontation with Russia, the Syrian regime and Iran. It will prefer to get some other support from the US.
Idlib's Fake News: Erdogan & Putin Set To Talk. Zone For Refugees Is Likely Outcome
As stated in yesterday's post linked above
"Turkey absolutely does not want anymore refugees. They can’t afford them financially or politically. The opposition will pounce on the Erdogan led government if the refugee flood gate bursts"
Jerusalem Post: "Missions like the defeat-ISIS campaign are like oil tankers. They don’t turn on a dime. $200 million is being sent by the US for a budget for eastern Syria and other groups the US supports to defeat ISIS this year. Defeating ISIS is now being done a shoe string, far removed from the 2018 plans to “stabilize” eastern Syria"
And still the US will hedge. That's obvious from the missions don't turn on a dime statement. Saudi Arabia has already picked up the "stabilize" slack in eastern Syria... Which is just another way of the Usrael leadership presenting as ‘at arms length’. Perception management.Lots for Syria, Russia and Iran to lose if Turkey returns to the empire's fold. Though it's not likely, for the simple/obvious reason the USrael machine is demonstrably duplicitous.Stay tuned.