A little over a week ago the Vote Common Good bus tour made an impromptu stop, their only unscheduled rally of their barnstorming Flip Congress tour so far. They had just spent Thursday in Sioux City with J.D. Scholten and decided to drive their bus about 40 miles north to Sioux Center, a Dutch-American town, home of Dordt College and 5 Christian Reformed churches, 4 Reformed Church in America churches, a United Reformed church and a Netherlands Reformed Church. There's also an Evangelical Free Church, a Lutheran Congregations in Mission for Christ church and an ELCA church. Sioux County is perfect for Vote Common Good. Bernie won the caucus there and Trump came in... 4th, after Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson. It's a red county... but people were uncomfortable with Trump from day one. In the general election, he beat Hillary 14,761 (82.1%) to 2,289 (12.7%). This is the kind of rural Iowa county that keeps voting to send racist, neo-fascist extremist Steve King back to Congress over and over.Doug Pagitt, a Minneapolis-based pastor and evangelical Christian reasoned with the folks that that "If you know in your hearts what the good is, we ask that you connect that to your head, and make that statement on your ballot on November 6th. Because the world needs people to tell their truth. And we’re not trying to shut anybody down, we’re just trying to turn up on the volume of the people that want to say something."Mark DeLap covered the event for the Sioux Center News: 'Movement' Makes Whistle Stop. "The movement," he wrote, "has been likened to a barnstorming evangelical revival of both celebrities and common people who believe that America is in trouble."
“It’s a hootenanny. We sing, we invoke people into their voting patterns and invoke them into their faith to live it out into the world,” said Doug Pagitt, Voting Common Good executive director and one of the organizational founders.Pagitt, who is the founding pastor of Solomon’s Porch, a holistic missional Christian community in Minneapolis, said that most of the people traveling with the group are Christians.“Vote Common Good is an effort to travel the country to ask religiously-minded voters to consider the common good when they vote on Nov. 6,” Pagitt said. “We think that if a person went to church on Nov. 4 and their pastor took them through the Sermon on the Mount that on Nov. 6 when they turn to vote, they probably wouldn’t be able to vote for the current Republican candidates.“We think that flipping this Congress is something that will happen if people care about their faith,” he said.Pagitt also said that the feeling of the group is that the current presidency “needs the restraint of a Congress that will stand up to it.”The tour has many celebrities, speakers, musicians and advocates for change who are traveling to cities all over the nation to speak out for change.J.D. Scholten, the Democratic nominee for Iowa’s 4th District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, opposing Republican incumbent Steve King, was in attendance and had a chance to address the crowd of about 50 people packed into the back room of The Fruited Plain Cafe in downtown Sioux Center.Scholten spoke about a friend who is a Native American activist who offered his advice when Scholten’s campaign first began.“He said, ‘J.D. if you want change, you’re going to have to get uncomfortable. And then once you get uncomfortable, you are going to have to get everyone else uncomfortable,’” Scholten said. “For the last 15 months, I’ve been uncomfortable. Now, it’s your turn, if you want change, to get uncomfortable from now until Nov. 6.”Frank Schaeffer was among the speakers who voiced an opinion for the cause. He is a New York Times best-selling author of more than a dozen books who has appeared on The Today Show and Oprah.“We have elected a prevaricating, lunatic, con artist, mobster who sits in our White House,” Schaeffer said. “My sense in this election is, is that this is a last-ditch effort and this is not a hyperbole. So, when I meet a candidate like J.D. I only have one message for him, and it’s not a political message. When it comes to putting a roadblock in the way of Trump and his administration, you think the first two years were bad, imagine if he has a majority in both houses of Congress and now a Supreme Court majority, there is no one to stop this man.“Our last chance is that J.D. gets elected and that we flip the House. And I have a message for you JD and I’m being serious. Save us.”Musical guests onstage included “Reverend” Vince Anderson who calls his music “Dirty Gospel” and has played with “The Tonight Show” band, The Roots. Featured artist from his Brooklyn-based band, The Love Choir, was former Baltimore Ravens cheerleader and singer Meah Pace who also has appeared with The Roots and Sharon Jones & The Dap Kings.Schaeffer concluded the program with some impassioned thoughts.“This isn’t about politics,” he said. “It’s about the national character. Go back and vote pro-life for the rest of your life. Vote for Republicans on a straight ticket next time. But this is a national emergency. It’s not Republicans and Democrats. It is a con artist, liar, philanderer, low life, who has weaseled his way with the bamboozled evangelical white vote into the White House. It behooves anyone who says they follow Jesus to try to repair the damage.”
As you probably know, Blue America has endorsed J.D. Scholten. Why? Because he's a progressive fighter for working families-- basically the same reason why the DCCC has not endorsed him and is-- at best-- ignoring his race. You can contribute to J.D.'s Get-Out-The-Vote efforts by tapping on the thermometer on the right. You may be wondering if he has a real shot at winning in this R+11 district that went for Trump over Hillary 60.9% to 33.5% and where even Obama only got 48.5%. Our go-to source for Iowa politics, Bleeding Heartland says yes... if. They pointed out that "a Democrat won a special election in a Pennsylvania U.S. House district with a partisan voting index of R+11-- the same as IA-04." Can J.D. pull off the same stunt? It would be a huge upset-- one of the biggest-- and most satisfying-- upsets of 2018. Bleeding Heartland outlined five things that have to happen for J.D. to win. They're actually all reasonable and do-able. In fact, grassroots contributions have given J.D. a $1,434,486 to $671,818 cash advantage over King!
1. About 140,000 to 150,000 votes in November.In the last midterm election, King defeated Jim Mowrer by 169,834 votes to 105,504. (Iowa still had five Congressional districts in 2010, so fewer votes were cast in King’s race.)Assuming some 280,000 to 300,000 people cast ballots in IA-04 this year, Scholten will need support from approximately 35,000 to 45,000 Iowans who did not vote for Mowrer.Incidentally, 14,588 Iowans voted for Scholten in the primary, according to unofficial results. Total Democratic turnout in IA-04 this month was 28,487.2. Record-breaking Democratic turnout.The latest voter registration totals indicate that the 39 counties in IA-04 contain 116,129 active registered Democrats, 188,334 Republicans, and 174,599 no-party voters. The total number for each party, including “inactive” registered voters, is 125,298 Democrats, 197,578 Republicans, and 191,491 no-party voters. (Those numbers will change a little due to people changing their registration on June 5 to vote in the primary.)Obviously, there aren’t enough registered Democrats in the district for Scholten to win just by maximizing his own party’s turnout. Nevertheless, strong GOTV would make a big difference.About 56.5 percent of registered Iowa Democrats cast ballots in the 2010 general election. About 56.7 percent did so in 2014.Assuming roughly the same turnout level, Scholten can count on a little more than 70,000 Democrats in IA-04 participating in this year’s election. That would probably work out to only about a quarter of the total ballots cast.Increasing base Democratic turnout to 65 percent would net Scholten an extra 10,000 votes. That would be very high for a non-presidential year. Some 62.2 percent of registered Iowa Democrats cast ballots in 2006, which was a wave year for the party.Since the June 5 primary saw record levels of Democratic participation, it’s not farfetched to expect unusually strong engagement this fall in reaction to an unpopular Republican president and the failures of GOP governance in Iowa.3. A large number of Republicans defecting from King.About 68.2 percent of registered Iowa Republicans voted in the last midterm election, and 69.0 percent did in the 2010 GOP landslide. In 2006–a wave year for Democrats–GOP turnout was only slightly lower: 64.9 percent.Assuming between 65 percent and 70 percent of registered Republicans vote this fall, between 128,000 and 138,000 Republicans in the IA-04 counties will cast ballots. If they all support King, that would give him almost enough to win.A non-trivial number of Republicans are fed up with King, though. State Senator Rick Bertrand won about 35 percent (15,872 votes) in his 2016 GOP primary challenge, even though practically the whole state GOP establishment backed King. Cyndi Hanson won about 25 percent (9,368 votes) in this year’s IA-04 primary–a high number considering she raised almost no money and had no direct mail or paid media program.Ideally, Scholten would win crossover votes from disaffected Republicans. But some may not have the stomach to vote for a Democrat. Every Republican who leaves that ballot line empty or votes for a third-party candidate (Charles Aldrich has filed as a Libertarian here) is half as good as a Republican who marks a ballot for Scholten.I’m curious to see how often Governor Kim Reynolds campaigns alongside King. She endorsed him before the 2016 primary and welcomed him as one of her campaign co-chairs last November. During King’s toughest re-election race against Christie Vilsack in 2012, Governor Terry Branstad cut a radio ad for the GOP incumbent. But Branstad wasn’t on the ballot that year. Reynolds has a tough race on her hands against Fred Hubbell.Picking numbers out of the air, let’s say 10 percent of GOP voters support Scholten in November and another 15 percent decline to vote for King. That scenario still leaves Scholten below 100,000 total votes.4. A solid majority among independents.Turnout drops much more sharply among no-party voters in non-presidential years than it does among partisans. Only about 35.6 percent of independents cast ballots in the 2006 general election, 36.5 percent did in 2010, and 37.8 percent did in 2014.Assuming turnout between 35 and 40 percent this year, roughly 67,000 to 76,000 voters affiliated with neither Democrats nor Republicans will vote in the IA-04 counties. Scholten needs a commanding margin–say, 65 to 70 percent of them–to get him a majority of all votes cast.5. Resources to campaign district-wide.Money alone will never win this district for Democrats. Vilsack raised and spent more than $3 million in her 2012 race against King, and Mowrer raised and spent more than $2 million two years later.At the same time, name recognition is essential for a challenger facing an eight-term incumbent, even a toxic one. IA-04 covers a huge area: 39 counties, spread over five media markets.
