The installation of the THAAD anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems in South Korea continues to be a source of domestic and regional tension. First of all, there’s China’s reaction, which is not only expressed in diplomatic statements.
On August 3, 2016 China’s central newspaper, the People’s Daily, published a commentary that indicated that the installation of the THAAD ABM system on the Korean Peninsula poses a serious threat to China’s strategic security. Although Washington and Seoul agreed to deploy the THAAD ABM system to counter Pyongyang’s missile program, their actions undermine security in Northeast Asia. The deployment of the US ABM system is obviously risky especially because South Korea and the USA had previously promised to hold talks with China but eventually made a decision without consulting Beijing at all. As a result, the deployment of the THAAD ABM system will not only cause South Korea trouble but may also drag it into a military confrontation between the United States, China and Russia.
Comments in Xinhua on July 30 bear the same tone: “The United States are deploying the THAAD ABM complex in South Korea with the argument that a new “shield” will allow them to respond to the threat posed by North Korea. However, this step is not in the interests of South Korea and will only serve the United States.”
According to the South Korean-US agreement, it will be the US Armed Forces that manage the THAAD complex in South Korea and third parties will not have access to data on the radar’s operation. This step made by the USA goes far beyond controlling North Korean airspace: if the radar is switched to forward-based mode, which takes no more than one day, its detection range can reach 2 thousand km. From a technical point of view, THAAD is designed to shoot down targets at a relatively high altitude of 40 to 150 km but North Korean missiles travel at a lower altitude – about 20 km. Therefore, according to some experts, the THAAD system may be unable to actually intercept them. According to Chinese experts, all this suggests that North Korea is not the aim of the ABM complex.
The editorials of other Chinese media emphasise that the deployment of the THAAD ABM systems on the Korean Peninsula will not only bring about tension in South Korean-Chinese relations but also significantly undermine the popularity of South Korean popular culture in China.
Accordingly, China has already started cancelling meetings between South Korean actors and their fans and is terminating contracts with actors currently filming television series. On August 2, 2016, the South China Morning Post newspaper referenced some of its sources and reported that some local TV stations in Guangdong had received an order from the State Administration of Press, Publishing, Radio, Film and Television of China stating that permission to broadcast shows that involve actors from South Korea as well as South Korean shows will not be issued in the near future.
Since August 3, 2016, the Chinese authorities have revoked the accreditation of firms that process business visas for South Korean citizens wanting to visit China. Now, to apply for a business visa, it is necessary to obtain an invitation directly from a Chinese partner.
South Korea’s response looks wan. A representative of the Government of South Korea, commenting on an editorial in the People’s Daily, stated that “Seoul and Washington’s decision to install the THAAD ABM complexes in the south of the Korean Peninsula has the aim of countering threats from Pyongyang. Therefore it is especially regrettable to see the Chinese state media print such unfounded criticism. Instead of making unsubstantiated claims, Beijing should demand that Pyongyang stop developing nuclear weapons and missiles.” I’m afraid that such admonitions will not have any particular affect on the Chinese leadership.
Meanwhile, the authorities of South Korea are wondering what to do about the protests in Seongju County where the system is to be deployed. Outraged local residents are showing their strong opposition to its installation arguing that the X-band radar emits excessive levels of radiation that is harmful to the human body. It’s possible that the rumours that the radar will kill everyone off or turn them infertile will prove to be incorrect but the local people don’t want to become pawns in some kind of foreign game: if armed conflict breaks out, their homes would be the target of the first strike. It bears remembering that the attempt made by South Korea’s prime minister to settle the issue at a private meeting with the local citizens bore no fruit. Hwang Kyo-ahn was pelted with eggs and security guards had to lead him to safety.
Therefore, on August 4, South Korean President Park Geun-hye met with deputies of the National Assembly from the ruling Saenuri party that represent the region where Seonjo County is located. Park Geun-hye once again reminded them that the THAAD ABM systems is being deployed exclusively in the interests of national security but did not rule out the possibility of reviewing the location of the missile batteries in Seonjo County at the agreement of the military leadership. The following day, representative of the South Korean presidential administration, Chong Yong-guk, stated that changing the location of the THAAD ABM systems is a complicated issue but the possibility will be carefully considered.
The military also seems to have distanced itself from its previous position that the approved location is the best choice in comparison with the others putting forward alternatives: the Yomsoksan and Kachkhisan Mountains, also in Seonjo County. The advantage of the new location is its height above sea level (870 and 570 metres) and the almost complete absence of nearby settlements. The problem is that most of the areas around the mountain peaks are privately owned and lack a road infrastructure which may complicate the construction work.
It seems to the author that this is not the end of the problems brought about by the installation of THAAD ABM systems.
Konstantin Asmolov, Ph.D. in History, Chief Research Fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”
