Re-Opening by Nancy OhanianMissouri is no longer a swing state; it's an ugly, garden variety Republican Trump state. The governor and both senators are right-wing Republicans. The state's congressional delegation consists of two establishment Democrats-- one in St. Louis and one in Kansas City-- and 6 entrenched right-wing Republicans. The state Senate has 24 Republicans and 10 Democrats and the state House has 114 Republicans and 46 Democrats (+3 vacant seats). In 2016, Trump won 111 of Missouri's 114 counties and the final vote was 1,585,753 (57.1%) to 1,054,889 (38.0%). Two years later-- the so-called "blue wave"-- and Josh Hawley ousted conservative Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill 1,254,927 (51.4%) to 1,112,935 (45.6%) despite being outspent $38,715,517 to $11,377,636. All that money-- and McCaskill won only 4 counties. In the 6 red congressional seats, only one (MO-02 in the St. Louis suburbs) had a vaguely competitive race-- defined as one in which the Democrat did better than a third the vote.Over the Memorial Day weekend, Missouri-- a state that hasn't taken the pandemic all that seriously-- crossed the 2,000 cases per million line. Today, that caseload stands at 12,616 (2,056 cases per million). "Only" 696 Missorians have died, so people don't see the pandemic as much of a problem and social distancing rules are frequently ignored, especially in small towns.Early yesterday, Associated Press reported that even in as red a state as Missouri, the state health director "issued a dire warning after photos and video showed Memorial Day weekend revelers partying close together: The coronavirus is still here, and the spreading of illnesses could have 'long-lasting and tragic' results." That's not a popular message with many people.
The Lake [of the Ozarks] draws people not only from as far away as Arkansas and Iowa. It's an especially popular spot for travelers from St. Louis city and county, which combined account for more than half of Missouri's 12,167 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus, and more than two-thirds of the state's 685 deaths.The St. Louis County Public Health Department urged anyone who did not socially distance at the lake to self-quarantine. "Any person who has travelled and engaged in this behavior should self-quarantine for 14 days or until they receive a negative test result for COVID-19," the travel advisory said.Bars, restaurants and hotels at Lake of the Ozarks also had big crowds, and they weren't alone. In Hannibal, Mark Twain's hometown and a popular regional tourist attraction, people could be seen sitting shoulder-to-shoulder inside and out at downtown bars and restaurants over the weekend.Republican Gov. Mike Parson allowed Missouri businesses and attractions to reopen May 4, but the state order requires 6-foot social distancing through at least the end of May. The order leaves it up to local and state health officials to enforce social distancing.The sheriff of Camden County, the area of the lake that attracts the most visitors, said in a statement that there is no crime related to social distancing "and therefore the sheriff's office has no authority to enforce actions in that regard.""We expect residents and visitors alike to exhibit personal responsibility when at the lake," Sheriff Tony Helms said. "We also respect the right of citizens to move freely around the lake and take responsibility to protect themselves from any expected dangers related to COVID-19."But the images clearly caught the eye of other public officials."This Memorial Day, we caution that COVID-19 is still here, and social distancing needs to continue to prevent further spread of infections," Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services Director Randall Williams said in a statement.Video from the Lake of the Ozarks typically showed younger people. Williams said close contact, even in the outdoors, can lead to more infections, even among the young and healthy who may not experience symptoms."When they then carry the virus and transmit it to a more vulnerable person, this is when we tend to see the long-lasting and tragic impact of these decisions that are being made," Williams said.The video from the Lake of the Ozarks prompted a stern warning from St. Louis County."This reckless behavior endangers countless people and risks setting us back substantially from the progress we have made in slowing the spread of COVID-19," Dr. Sam Page, the county executive, said in a statement.St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson, in a statement, called it "irresponsible and dangerous" to engage in such high-risk behavior."Now, these folks will be coming home to St. Louis and counties all over Missouri and the Midwest, raising concerns about the potential of more positive cases, hospitalizations, and tragically, deaths," Krewson said in a statement. "It's just deeply disturbing."St. Louis Health Department spokesman Harold Bailey said officials are "greatly concerned" that city residents will return from large gatherings and bring the virus back with them."That could negate, or even set back the mitigation efforts we have accomplished up to this point in the pandemic," Bailey said in an email.
According to the last-- albeit pre-pandemic-- Morning Consult Trump tracker, his net approval for Missouri had decreased by 11 points. 52% approved of the job he was doing and 44% disapproved. Nationally, a polling average today shows Trump with a 53.7% disapproval and 42.7% approval on the job he's doing handling the pandemic.Despite that, right-wing fringe media asserts that Trump is winning the lockdown wars. Presumably, the greater the number of people who contract COVID-19 (followed first by hospitalizations and then by deaths), the bigger Trump's "victory." From Monday to Tuesday there were 19,790 new cases (the biggest number, by far, of any country the world)-- and that was without any report from badly spiking states, Rhode Island, Kentucky and Idaho. Yesterday another 18,908 cases were added nationally, as the country officially passed the 100,000 death mark. I predict it will take a million deaths before enough Americans start taking social distancing seriously enough to turn the pandemic back.
