Lamar and Darrell, 2 top targets for 2018Hillary's electoral strategy may not have done well in working class areas of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan-- where she lost the election-- but it had a great deal of appeal in upper-income, moderate, white suburbs that always go Republican, like in Orange County, California, which she won, although didn't need and didn't bring her a single extra electoral college vote. She did WAY better than Obama in the usually-Republican northern suburbs around Atlanta... but that didn't bring her any extra electoral votes either. And in Texas-- mamma mia!-- Hillary won the Republican suburbs around Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio. Look at Ft Bend County southwest of Houston.Romney beat Obama there, 116,028 (53%) to 101,043 (46%) in 2012. Hillary turned that around big time. She beat Trump 134,475 (51.6%) to 117,212 (45.0%). Amazing, huh? It didn't do her lick of good but... amazing. And she did great in Bexar County too, which includes both San Antonio and it's suburbs. She beat Trump 319,191 (54.5%) to 240,161 (41.0%), far better than Obama's 2012 performance when he won Bexar 263,871 (52%) to Romney's 240,519 (47%).As you can see from those Bexar numbers, Trump essentially won the same 240,000 Republicans in the wealthier San Antonio areas that Romney won, while Hillary's messaging increased her vote over Obama's by over 50,000 votes. It didn't do her a bit of good, of course, and it was the same thing in the suburbs south of Austin. Travis county contains both Austin-- heavily Democratic-- and it's suburbs, which are more swingy. Obama won Travis County handily-- 231,540 (60%) to Romney's 139,503 (36%) but look at Hillary's numbers there: 306,475 (66.3%) to Trump's 126,750 (27.4%). Again, Hillary picked up tens of thousands of votes in the Austin suburbs over what Obama had managed. Too bad her "moderate" messaging was totally wasted, bringing her pyrrhic victories in places where she didn't need the votes and losing her votes in places where she desperately needed them-- and where Trump won the election. That's the Third Way way!Caveat: the table is set for Texas Democrats to start winning again. Hillary's numbers in John Culbertson's Houston area district and Lamar Smith's San Antonio/Austin area district indicate that serious well-financed Democrats will win back both those seats in 2018 or 2020. This cycle urge DCCC stubbiornly ignored both districts of course. Culberson's opponent, James Cargas had no institutional support in TX-07 and didn't run a serious campaign-- spent only $61,854 to Culberson's $1,142,775 and took 111,774 votes (43.8%) to Culberson's 143,369 (56.2%). TX-21 was similar. Lamar Smith faced a well-run grassroots campaign by Berniecrat Tom Wakely. Wackily had no institutional Democratic support whatsoever, nor, alas, any from national Berniecrats. He spent $62,313 to Lamar Smith's $1,703,546. (Even though the deaf, dumb and blind DCCC didn't, Smith realized he was facing a serious challenge and, for the first time ever, spent almost $200,000 more than he raised! The DCCC refused to spend a nickel in a district where Hillary was appealing to moderate voters and the only outside help Wakely got was from Blue America ($13,950) and Climate Hawks Vote ($4,847). He did better than any other Democrat had ever done against Smith, but there's on;y so much you can do against that kind of financial disparity-- and lack of support from one's own barely-alive party.And going forward? If the Democrats ever want to take back the House, maybe they should get out of their comfort zone and start looking more seriously at districts where the DCCC didn't even compete-- from Orange County, CA to TX-07 and TX-21 to GA-06 north of Atlanta. Americans have gotten a look at Trump since November 8-- and they don't like what they see, not at all. His approval ratings are shockingly low.
President Donald Trump is the first elected president in Gallup's polling history to receive an initial job approval rating below the majority level. He starts his term in office with 45% of Americans approving of the way he is handling his new job, 45% disapproving and 10% yet to form an opinion. Trump now holds the record for the lowest initial job approval rating as well as the highest initial disapproval rating in Gallup surveys dating back to Dwight D. Eisenhower.Trump's inaugural approval rating is not much lower than the 51% recorded for George H.W. Bush in 1989 as well as for Ronald Reagan in 1981, but his disapproval rating is substantially higher than theirs. Whereas 45% disapprove of Trump, only 6% disapproved of the elder Bush and 13% disapproved of Reagan.
College graduates-- and there are plenty in Lamar Smith's and John Culberson's Texas districts-- disapprove of Trump at much higher levels than most groups. Only 37% of college graduates approve of Trump so far; 57% disapprove. Even before Ryan and the House Republicans have overreached in ways expected to turn the country even more vehemently against the GOP, Trump loyalists in Congress-- like Lamar Smith-- are trying to defend him. Smith, the Science-denying chairman of the House Science Committee who LOVES, LOVES, LOVES the idea of "alternative facts," was on the House floor Monday night babbling his nonsense about Trumpanzee: "He is off to a fast start. His Cabinet consists of smart, experienced and successful individuals. He already has taken steps to keep jobs in America, put unnecessary regulations on hold and improve healthcare. Consumer confidence is at a 16-year-high. No, the national liberal media won’t print that or air it or post it. Better to get your news directly from the president. In fact, it might be the only way to get the unvarnished truth."You'd think the DCCC would be frothing at the mouth to encourage a good opponent for Smith for 2018. They're not. No one-- at least no one that we know of-- other than Blue America, is even looking for someone to run against him-- against him, against Culberson in the Houston area, against Rohrabacher and Royce in the suburbs south of L.A. where Hillary did so well and Trump ate dirt and against dozens of other Republicans in districts that DCCC has acclimated themselves to not contesting. This has to stop. Pelosi reappointed a visionless hack, Ben Ray Lujan to head the DCCC, so it would be a miracle to expect any change from that quarter. Can Ellison make a difference if he takes over the DNC? Maybe. Meanwhile, grassroots activism is essential now for 2018. It's the only thing that can turn things around-- despite the DCCC-- for the congressional Democratic candidates who will be in position to slow down nd stop Trump in two years.
