Over the weekend we ran an analysis-- How High theWave? How High theWave? How Many Republicans Will Drown In It? that predicts the GOP will lose 1,000 state legislative seats by the first Wednesday of November 2016. Brian Stryker and Zac McCrary looked carefully at the results from the 29 state level contested special elections that took place since Trump was declared the winner and came to the conclusion that if the margins continue as they have-- they could also get even better for Democrats as Trump stumbles through his job-- "it will be enough to flip almost a thousand state legislative races, give Democrats control of more state houses than Republicans, and most likely have similar impacts on up-ticket races like Congress/Governor/Senate." PPP's head honcho, Dean Debnam, has come to similar conclusions, stating flatly that 2018 is shaping up big for the Democrats and pointing out that "Democrats continue to hold a double digit lead on the generic Congressional ballot at 48-37, which should position them to pick up a lot of seats across the country next year."The Democrats would pick up a lot more with even a vaguely competent DCCC and DSCC. Recruiting pitiful Blue Dogs and New Dems to run as if they were real Democrats will cost the party seats, but probably not enough to stop Trump and Ryan from destroying their own party at the polls. "Democrats," said Debnam, "have been winning a lot of elections in 2017. And all indications are that they’re going to keep on winning a lot of elections in 2018."
One reason for the strong position Democrats are in is fallout from the GOP's failed efforts on health care, and our new poll makes it clear Jimmy Kimmel won the health care battle in the court of public opinion. By a 47/34 spread, voters say they trust Kimmel more than the Republicans in Congress when it comes to health care issues. Kimmel has a 47/30 favorability rating nationally. By contrast Paul Ryan is at a 25/51 approval rating, Mitch McConnell is at 14/61, and Congress as a whole has a 9/76 approval.Only 27% of voters support the most recent Republican health care bill to 53% who oppose it. By contrast the Affordable Care Act continues to have new found popularity with 48% of voters in favor of it and 34% against. Asked which of the bills they prefer the Affordable Care Act beats out the Graham-Cassidy repeal bill 53-34, and only 32% of voters think the best path forward on health care is to repeal the Affordable Care Act while 62% think it's best to keep it and makes fixes as necessary.The health care debate is having a bad impact on Republicans electorally. By a 19 point margin voters say they're less likely to support a member of Congress who voted for the health care repeal bill- 48% say they're less likely to vote for such an incumbent next year to only 29% who say they're more likely to....[V]oters continue to have concerns with Trump's general temperament. Only 39% of voters think he's honest, to 54% who consider him to be dishonest. A plurality of voters- 47%- consider Trump to be mentally unbalanced to only 45% who consider him to be mentally stable. 58% of voters still want to see Trump's tax returns, to only 35% who think it isn't necessary for him to release them. Only 35% of voters think Trump has fulfilled his core campaign promise to 'Make America Great Again' to 53% who think he has not delivered. And for the fifth month in a row we find voters in support of impeachment- 48% favor it, to 43% who are opposed.“We’re really not seeing any path to Donald Trump achieving a positive approval rating,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters are unhappy with him about a lot of ongoing issues, and new ones seem to creep up in our polling every month as well.”Without Hillary Clinton to kick around anymore Trump has tried to turn the media into his foil, but we continue to find that he is losing all of his battles with the media. For the first time we added ESPN to the list of outlets we compared Trump with this month, and voters say they trust ESPN over him by a 48/38 spread......Trump continues to fare very poorly in possible match ups against Democrats for 2020. We tested Hillary Clinton against Trump this month for the first time, mostly as a baseline for comparison against other possible Democratic candidates, and Clinton leads Trump by 5 points at 47/42. 3 Democrats we tested clearly perform more strongly against Trump than Clinton- Joe Biden who leads by 13 points at 53/40, Bernie Sanders who leads by 11 points at 51/40, and Michelle Obama who leads by 10 points at 51/41. Biden and Sanders both win over 10% of people who voted for Trump last fall while losing almost no Clinton voters.Other Democrats we tested against Trump are Cory Booker who leads him 47/40, Elizabeth Warren who leads him 47/41, Kirsten Gillibrand who leads him 42/39, and Kamala Harris who leads him 41/40. The percentage support the Democrat gets in these match ups varies from 41% to 53% probably depending on their name recognition, but Trump's support is pretty constant in the 39-42% range against all of these possible challengers.Voters also wish by a 52/41 margin that Barack Obama was still President instead of Trump.
On the other hand, a Democratic member of Congress sent me this pessimistic look forward, not one I agree with but one worth putting out there since this is an exceptionally smart member of Congress: "If you ask House Dems why the GOP did well in the last four cycles, they will say that it’s because the GOP ran against Obama. They ignore the fact that the GOP ran against ObamaCARE, and a real problem in the lives of 200 million Americans covered by private insurance and without preexisting conditions, i.e., rising health insurance premiums. The 2016 Presidential election devolved into a policy-free anti-Trump campaign, and the 2018 elections are heading in the same direction. There is literally not a single issue that national Democrats collectively are willing to campaign on, even the DREAM Act (which is as close as you come). A party without a platform is not a party that will ride a wave, it’s a party that will sink under the waves." The good news for Pelosi and he incompetent DCCC is that if the wave is big enough-- and I think it will be-- even a bunch of clueless and talent-free hacks can win, though not retain their seats in the next midterm, as we saw with the Rahm Emanuel DCCC Blue Dog class of 2006 that was totally wiped out in 2010. Pelosi's current moron-chairman, Ben Ray Lujan, is consciously and actively trying to duplicate everything Rahm did, including co-recruiting with the Blue Dogs and New Dems.John Culberson's constituents are not inclined to give him a 10th termDr. Jason Westin is the award-winning cancer doctor in Houston running for the congressional seat currently held by Trump and Ryan rubber-stamp John Culberson in a very swingy district. The independent voters in TX-07 are getting fed up with his anti-family shtik and his refusal to meet with his constituents. His votes for TrumpCare were the last straw for many of them who are now eager to see him repealed and replaced himself. Last night Westin told us that "Culberson has been the elected representative for the 7th District in Texas for 9 terms, but it's hard to find many people who could pick him out of a lineup, and even less who could say what he has done for the district. John has become one of Donald Trump's biggest supporters, and has voted with him 98% of the time. After many district residents flooded during Hurricane Harvey, Harris County Commissioner Steve Radack slammed Culberson for failed leadership. If Culberson hasn't figured it out by now, why should TX-07 voters give him a 10th try to finally get it right?"
