Mike Siegel

Campaign videos don't have to be expensive to be effective. I asked Mike Siegel what this one cost him. I caught up with him just as he was headed out the door to meet Beto for a rally in Elgin. He told me the video was part of a package that includes 12 clips and some mailers, but that if you break down the package, you could say the video cost around $1,500. "This is what a resistance campaign in 2018 looks like," he told me. "Focused messages targeted at specific segments of voters.

Mike Siegel's campaign got some good news and some... well, mixed news, today. The tweet below is the mixed news. Cook Report staffer Dave Wasserman, who gets incredibly more credit as a pundit than he comes close to deserving, mentioned that the very gerrymandered 10th district in Texas-- stretching from north Austin into the far suburbs west of Houston-- is an example of a district that could flip but is also an example of DCCC recruitment failure. The DCCC should be recruiting more top notch candidates like Siegel, not fewer.

Team Trumpanzee could have hardly timed their ill-advised trade war better-- for congressional Democrats. Yesterday, Ben White at Politico reported that Señor T's "trade battles are already triggering economic warnings-- and rising danger for Republicans just ahead of the midterm elections."

Paul Ryan's Adelson-funded SuperPAC is running the dirtiest and most personal smear campaign in history. The goal is to disgust independent voters and turn them off from voting. Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to stick to issues but are being distracted defending against Ryan's attempt to smear them. Ryan is pounding Randy Bryce especially hard in his own district (which he's retiring from). He knows the key to election is independent voters, who are leaning strongly away from the GOP.

Mutiny by Nancy OhanianEarly in the cycle, I noticed that a reasonable theme to cover would be Trump as an albatross whose reverse coattails would pull down Republican candidates across the country-- particularly in districts with large numbers of independent covers. I asked Nancy Ohanian, the best of the political artists, what she thought about it.

Earlier today, we looked at how badly Republicans are expected to do in November. Don't fret; they've earned it. And the sense of likely doom is already starting to spill over into their congressional policy agenda.

Do you know who the "Millennials" are, aside from "those kids?" At first they were called "Gen Y." and it's debatable about when they started being born and when people started being born into "Gen Z." But generally, Millennials started in the early '80s 'til around 2000. They're the children of the Baby Boomers, my generation. They tend to be more liberal though-- and more familiar with digital technologies.

Every poll I've seen and every focus group I've watched has shown that healthcare and the economy-- as in a more equitable one-- are the top two issues Americans will have in mind when they step into the voting booths in November.

Closing In by Nancy OhanianNBC News has released polling numbers from 9 key states-- eight of which Trump won-- showing that, among other things, that the anti-red wave is going to sweep away a lot of Republicans in November.

I still have some wealthy friends from when I was, as Andy Paley always called me, Corporate Howie. These friends are rich but progressive. I had lunch with 4 of them the other day and they said they'd like to do a fundraiser for Beto O'Rourke. Running in Texas-- with all those media markets-- costs a fortune. When Ted Cruz ran in 2012, he spent $14,031,864-- mostly in the Republican primary. Democrat Paul Sadler spent $510,439.