Iowa

Every week I’m on the radio with David Feldman and every week I try to explain why Iowa just cannot be accurately polled. The idea of Mayo Pete winning the caucuses is patently absurd, even if the RealClearPolitics polling average-- based on polls that are all over the map and far from showing any kind of consensus-- show him ahead:

Iowa is a swing state-- and in 2016 it swung hard against the Democrats, primarily because the party fielded a status quo candidate who offered hard-pressed workers just about nothing and because Trump made them all kinds of (since-unfulfilled) promises.

Our old friend, Valley Girl, sent me this video with a note. All I can say is that I agree with her assessment and I'm more than happy to share it with you. Valley Girl wrote that she "found this, saw that it was 26 minutes long, and inwardly groaned because I am flat out worn out. I wasn't sure I had the attention span for it. But I started watching, and the time flew past. I just couldn't stop watching it. There were no surprises here in what Bernie said.

It's not really possible to accurately poll a caucus state, and especially not Iowa. The most recent attempt, by Siena for the NY Times shows a close tie between Elizabeth, Bernie, Mayo Pete and Status Quo Joe.

There are always exceptions to blanket statements in politics, but, at least, to my mind, that billionaires should not be supported in presidential runs is not one of them. Steyer may be a better candidate, issue-wise than, say, the far more conservative and venal Michael Bloomberg, but he's still a billionaire who thinks he's entitled to buy whatever his money can buy.

It surprised me to see Trump's coalition in the Midwest falling apart. In the most recent Morning Consult state-by-state Trump tracker, it doesn't look like rural America will be coming to his rescue in 2020. His net approval in state after state he won in 2016 in underwater:

-by Vice Admiral Michael Franken (ret.)If America had a dollar for every time DC insiders gave a reason not to hold President Donald Trump accountable, the $22 trillion national debt would be zero.

Unscientific Twitter poll makes a point without body language analysisI ran a little twitter poll on Friday and I was surprised that so many respondents sawbthe possibilities inherent in political polling the same way I did.

2 politicians Ernst should never be near when a camera is around: white nationalists Trump and Steve KingMaybe she was making a play for a bipartisan conservative ticket with Biden-- or maybe she's crazy. But Iowa freshman Senator Joni Ernst (R) looks like she made a classic rookie error this week when she intimated that Social Security benefits had to be cut. First a little background on Iowa, a classic swing state.

Jason Butler is the newest candidate Blue America has endorsed. He's running for a North Carolina seat (NC-02) that is about half suburban and half rural. The incumbent, George Holding, is just a good-for-nothing corporate shill and Trump rubber-stamp and enabler.