climate models

by Judith Curry
My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations.

by Judith Curry
I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

by Dan Hughes and Tomas Milanovic
Further reflections on the application of the divergence theorem to the Earth’s climate system.

by Dan Hughes
It is not a boundary value problem.

The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible

A guest post by Nic Lewis

Their nature and assessment of their validity

A guest post by Nic Lewis
There have been quite a number of papers published in recent years concerning “emergent constraints” on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in comprehensive global climate models (GCMs), of both the current (CMIP5) and previous (CMIP3) generations. The range of ECS values in GCMs has remained almost unchanged since the early days of climate modelling; in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) it was given as 2.1-4.7°C for CMIP5 models.[i]

A guest post by Nic Lewis
Introduction and summary
Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt (the head of NASA GISS) and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1] It appears to me that the novel part of its analysis is faulty, and that the part which isn’t faulty isn’t novel.

Introduction

by Nic Lewis
A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.

A guest post by Nic Lewis
Introduction
Last week a paper predicting greater than expected global warming, by scientists Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira, was published by Nature.[1]  The paper (henceforth referred to as BC17) says in its abstract: