Saving America by Nancy Ohanian At this point, national polling for the presidential race isn't nearly as important as swing state polling. In 2016, Hillary won 65,853,514 (48.2%) votes nationally to Trump's 62,984,828 (46.1%). But Hillary's 2,968,626 vote victory didn't mean squat in the electoral college, where Trump won 304 votes to her 227. Polling shows that the vast majority of Americans have already made up their minds on the key issue of this election-- do they want Trump in the White House for 4 more years or not. The debates aren't going to change many minds, although they could be impactful in a few states that are close. These were the polling averages (Real Clear Politics) in the swing states on Tuesday morning:
• Wisconsin- Biden +5.5%• Florida- Biden +1.1%• Pennsylvania- Biden +5.7%• North Carolina- Biden +0.8%• Michigan- Biden +5.2%• Arizona- Biden +3.4%• Minnesota- Biden +9.4%• Ohio- Biden +3.3%• Iowa- tie• Nevada- Biden +5.3%• New Hampshire- Biden +5.5%• Maine- Biden +15.3%• Virginia- Biden +11.0%• Georgia- Trump +1.3%• Texas- Trump +3.6%• Colorado- Biden +10.0%• New Mexico- Biden +14.5%• Alaska- Trump +3.0%
Writing for Sabato's Crystal Ball yesterday, Alan Abramowitz reported that an analysis of recent state polls shows Trump losing. Trump is ahead in 15 states with 154 electoral votes and he's losing in 20 states with 298 electoral votes. That's enough to win, even though there is insufficient polling data available for 15 states and the District of Columbia (86 electoral votes). But, going beyond the current polling Sabato's Crystal Ball has some state by state predictions that give Biden 27 states and the District of Columbia with 352 electoral votes and Trump 23 states with 186 electoral votes. Here's a state by state prediction (along with Hillary's 2016 performance): According to their analysis, Trump will do worse in November than he did in 2016 in every state except very marginally in DC, where Hillary won with 86.8% but where Biden may "only" get 81.4%. Trump's numbers have fallen drastically even in the deepest red hellholes like Wyoming, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Alabama the Dakotas and Idaho. But more importantly, he is down significantly in every swing state-- every single one, and enough so to remove Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (119 electoral votes) from the Trump column. Abramowitz concluded that In 2016, Señor Trumpanzee "shocked the political world by pulling off a victory in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by more than two percentage points. The key to his victory was winning several large swing states including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by very narrow margins. Based on recent polling data, however, Trump appears unlikely to duplicate his 2016 feat. He is currently trailing in every 2016 swing state, including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, although the margin in Florida is very close. Meanwhile, he is being forced to invest time and money defending several states that he won easily in 2016. In contrast, Joe Biden appears to be comfortably ahead in every state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Barring a major comeback in the final weeks of the campaign or very large and systematic polling errors, the incumbent appears to be headed for a decisive defeat in both the popular vote and the electoral vote." Trump has thrown everyone under the bus-- congressional Republicans are next Trump's toxicity spells very bad news for Republican Senate-- and, presumably, House-- incumbents. While these numbers aren't directly helpful in predicting House races, they show it that Senate incumbents Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Martha McSally (R-AZ), Cory Gardner (R-CO), David Perdue (R-GA), Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), Joni Ernest (R-IA), Susan Collins (R-ME), Steve Daines (R-MT), Thom Tillis (R-NC), Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and John Cornyn (R-TX) each has a giant albatross hanging around his or her neck going into November. It isn't likely they'll all lose, but it is very likely that Chuck Schumer is going to be the next majority leader (God help us all).
