After Trump's big loss in Louisiana Saturday, congressional Republicans worried about self-reservation are even more worried than they were last week when they could persuade themselves it was just losing Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin's terrible personality. Now it's a simple equation:
Big Democratic turnout + anti-Trump independents = Republican losses
And that holds even in pretty red constituencies. New York State isn't entirely red and I want to look a little closer there because the Republicans can lose some more congressional seats there next year. In 2016, Trump won 9 of the 27 compressional districts in New York, his home state. He won't win 9 next year, unless the Democrats completely blow it and nominate a Hillary-like candidate so uninspiring that he fails, like she did, to turn out the base and fails to woo independents. These are the districts Trump won and by how much:
• NY-01-- Suffolk County- 54.5% to 42.2%• NY-02-- Suffolk and Nassau- 53.0% to 43.9%• NY-11-- Staten Island, south Brooklyn- 53.6% to 43.8%• NY-18-- Orange, Dutchess, Putnam, Westchester- 49.0% to 47.1%• NY-19-- Ulster, Dutchess, Columbia, Rensselaer- 50.8% to 44.0%• NY-21-- Saratoga, St. Lawrence, Jefferson, Clinton- 53.9% to 40.0%• NY-22-- Oneida, Broome, Madison- 54.8% to 39.3%• NY-23-- Chautauqua, Tompkins, Steuben, Chemung- 54.5% to 39.7%• NY-27-- Erie, Niagara, Ontario- 59.7% to 35.2%
Let's look at the same 9 congressional districts with their new voter registration numbers (as of this month) and what happened in last year's midterm election:
• NY-01- Lee Zelden (R) reelected• Dem- 151,357• Rep- 159,329• Ind- 131,158• NY-02- Peter King (R) reelected
• Dem- 163,014• Rep- 152,306• Ind- 118,324• NY-11- Dan Donovan (R)- defeated
• Dem- 193,791• Rep- 116,019• Ind- 97,066• NY-18- Sean Maloney (D) reelected
• Dem- 164,061• Rep- 135,231• Ind- 109,142• NY-19- John Faso (R) defeated
• Dem- 151,976• Rep- 139,021• Ind- 116,032• NY-21- Elise Stefanik (R) reelected
• Dem- 120,462• Rep- 166,884• Ind- 86,274• NY-22- Claudia Tenney (R) defeated
• Dem- 130,548• Rep- 158,947• Ind- 83,702• NY-23- Tom Reed (R) reelected
• Dem- 131,443• Rep- 154,964• Ind- 85,984• NY-27- Chris Collins (R) reelected, resigned
• Dem- 144,719• Rep- 185,505• Ind- 100,878
It's looking like Trump has alienated about 60% of independent voters to the point where they will vote Democrats. If that happens next November-- and spills over into the congressional races-- look for Democrats to win both Long Island districts and the Syracuse district (John Katko) and too close to call in NY-21 and NY-27. Imagine if Tom Reed is the only Republican left in the New York congressional delegation. And with the state likely to lose a seat after the census...