by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week.
The folks at the @metoffice put together an excellent explainer on 2017 temperatures. Differences between groups largely arise from how they deal with interpolation in polar regions. [link] …
Jim Hansen: explainer for 2017 global temperatures. Baselines, anomalies, data sources, and conclusions in context w/previous El Nino & prediction for next decade (hiatus) [link] …
“Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” Cox et al 2018 [link] …
Methodology for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from the 20th-century historical record: [link]
On the emergent constraints of climate sensitivity [link]
Piers Forster: A compelling analysis suggests that we can rule out high estimates of this sensitivity [link]
Why clouds hold the key to better climate models [link]
Large Antarctic snowfall increases could counter sea level rise, scientists say [link] …
“Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?” [link] …
Jet stream response to #Arctic temperature swings [link]
Why are Arctic linkages to extreme weather still up in the air? [link]
Good overview by Carbon Brief: What are climate models and how do they work? [link] …
A Princeton glaciologist says a mega-engineering project may avert cataclysmic sea-level rise, [link]
Estimating the SST observing method from the observations and diurnal cycle, [link] …
Wonder how meteorologists can come up with 1-in-250 year probability estimates with only 137 years of data? It involves complex stats, but NOAA’s @TDiLiberto explains the math and science well here: [link] …
Drivers of 2016 record Arctic warmth assessed using climate simulations subjected to Factual and Counterfactual forcing [link] …
Sources of intermodel spread in the lapse rate and water vapor feedbacks [link]
Host Of Studies Show No Drought/Forest Fire Trend [link]
Causes of glacier melt extremes in the Alps since 1949 [link]
The ocean has lost a lot of oxygen in recent decades — “in amounts tightly related to ocean warming.” The effects will get worse, but are difficult to predict. [link] …
Warming and Cooling – The Medieval Climate Anomaly in Africa and Arabia [link]
“Cheruy et al. [2017] demonstrate a noteworthy negative nocturnal feedback between soil moisture and temperature that is particularly strong in so-called “hot-spot” regions of land-atmosphere coupling.” Wet soils elevate night time temperatures. [link]
Thriving on our changing planet: A decadal strategy for Earth Observation from Space [link]
Coastal waves drive Antarctic ocean warming, [link]
New data from ice cores show that mean ocean temperature from the Last Glacial Maximum to the early Holocene. Rose about 2.5 ℃ over this period. [link]
Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability [link]
Hausfather: new “hybrid” sea surface temperature estimate using island and coastal land stations to correct for biases in ocean records due to changing instrumentation.[link]
Policy and Social Sciences
Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions [link]
The @theAGU has just issued a new position paper on geoengineering – though it’s now called “climate intervention”. Says “may be a need for climate interventions to help reduce or offset some of the effects of climate change” & research should continue: [link]
After one year of the Trump administration, here’s what has actually happened (and NOT happened!) to science. It’s not really a “war on science.” [link] …
Joe Duarte: Checking the Fact Checkers. AP Fact Check is going to amaze you. And Google too:[link]
Are the New York City and various California lawsuits that seek compensation from oil companies to offset climate damages warranted? [link]
Experimental evidence that online incivility increases political polarization [link] Legal: Is global warming a ‘public nuisance’? [link]
Mark Lynas – a tentative 7-point plan for a peace treaty between anti and pro-GMO warriors. [link] …
Why China is freezing [link]
About science and scientists
“In medicine, the term “evidence-based” causes more arguments than you might expect. And that’s quite apart from the recent political controversy over why certain words were avoided in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention budget documents.” [link]