When Herr Trumpf comes in among the most admired men in America, one has to wonder who are they askingOn the surface, Trumpf's running away with the Republican nomination-- and, in fact, he may (although I've always believed Ted Cruz is the perfect match for what the GOP has become, even more so than Herr Trumpf and that it is Cruz who will be the nominee). Right now the next-to-meaningless national polls show Trumpf way ahead-- 36.5% in the RealClearPolitics national average, against Cruz's 17.8% and Rubio's 11.3%, the only 3 in double digits. That's a lagging indicator which doesn't predict much of anything except a barrage of tweets from Trumpf talking about how well he's doing. The first contest, the Iowa caucuses, are coming up February 1-- right around the corner-- and Trumpf is on track to lose to Cruz. The newest CBS poll of Iowa Republicans has Cruz beating him 40-31. And Cruz has a real campaign operation in Iowa (and across the Confederate Super Tuesday states). But the point is, even worse for Herr... no one thinks his supporters (see photo about) will turn out too vote, let alone caucus in Iowa. They'll buy his hats and t-shirts and fragrance, maybe even a book, but caucus? We'll see.
Trump’s unexpected and sustained popularity has, at least in part, been fueled by his appeal to a voting bloc that seems to be emerging: blue-collar workers without college degrees who are slightly younger than the traditional Republican voter. Many say they haven’t cared about politics until now, as they flock to Trump rallies like groupies to a rock concert, read his books, buy his products, quote his jokes and follow his social-media accounts.But is their devotion to Trump deep enough to vote?For those who don’t regularly vote in primaries, doing so for the first time is a hurdle-- especially in Iowa, which uses a caucus system that can intimidate first-timers.In states with early primary contests, Trump’s staffers are trying to teach their supporters how to vote and get a commitment that they actually will. Before each rally here, Trump’s state co-chairs walk the crowd through how the caucuses work and urge them to attend. But they are also hoping word will spread through social media and in conversations after church, at the school bus stop, during coffee breaks and over holiday dinners.At Trump’s rally in Des Moines on Dec. 11, a couple in their early 30s said they have no plans to caucus, even though they hope Trump will be president and wanted their two young sons to see the candidate speak. A 25-year-old graduate student said he would probably caucus for Trump, but he just moved to the state and has no idea how to do so. A group of high school students said they won’t be old enough to vote. A retiree who said he’s “not a political sort of guy” is still surveying his options....“Is there anybody up here that’s 100 percent sure that you’re caucusing on February 1 for Trump?” the staffer asked, then waited, holding the clipboard over his head. “Anybody? No?”With no takers, the staffer moved on to the next section of cheering fans eagerly awaiting Trump’s arrival.
The Republican Party establishment has several things they are really good at-- and one of them is preventing people, particularly poor people, from voting. As we mentioned yesterday, the Virginia GOP has already taken steps to prevent Trumpf fans from participating in their primary if the said Trumpf fans are not already registered Republicans, causing a twitter shit-fit from Herr. How many state GOPs will follow Virginia's lead, which, obviously, is meant to trigger a brokered convention and a Paul Ryan nomination?And while Herr was howling on twitter, Bernie Sanders was on Face the Nation making a reasonable appeal to a slice of anti-establishment Trump voters. "Look," he told John Dickerson, "many of Trump’s supporters are working-class people and they’re angry because they’re working longer hours for lower wages. They’re angry because their jobs have left this country and gone to China or other low-wage countries;they're angry because they can't afford to send their kids to college and they can't retire with dignity. And what I’m suggesting is that what Trump has done successfully is take that anger, take that anxiety about terrorism and and say to a lot of people in this country 'the reason for our problems is because of Mexicans' and he says they're all criminals and rapists. 'We've got to hate got to hate Mexicans..." Here watch the video:Later he talked with Andrea Mitchell on Meet the Press and did his best to steer her away from her sad penchant for cheap, tawdry sensationalism, saying that "the real issues are not Donald Trump's vulgarity-- and he is vulgar-- it is the fact that Donald Trump thinks we should not be raising the minimum wage. He believes that wages in America are too high. This guy wants to give hundreds of billions of dollars in tax breaks to the top three-tenths of one percent. And meanwhile what he wants to do is divide our country between Latinos and Americans, between Muslims and everybody else. That's not the kind of America we need... What we have got to do is ask the hard questions: why is it that the people on top are doing phenomenally well while almost everyone else is seeing a decline in their real incomes... Frankly, I think for the American people there are far more important issues having to do with the disappearance of the American middle class and huge income and wealth inequality and climate change."