A week from tomorrow there's a crucial primary in central Illinois' swingy 13th congressional district. It pits progressive physics professor George Gollin against a Machine-backed run-of-the-mill hack, Ann Callis. Tomorrow, however, there's a special election in the 13th congressional district of another state, Florida. This one pits a dreadful Republican lobbyist, David Jolly, against a garden variety Democratic centrist, Alex Sink. Neither candidate has an ounce of authenticity, neither is even remotely attractive as a leader or public servant and there isn't much reason for any voter to go to the polls other than to vote for Team Blue or Team Red. How sad!The latest polling, released this afternoon by LCV, shows Sink holding a 48-45% lead, primarily because independents are breaking in her favor 61-27%. There's been an early voting trend for the past couple of weeks favoring Team Red. As of Saturday, about 117,000 ballots had been cast in Pinellas County's special election for Congressional District 13-- more than half of the votes likely to be cast-- and Republicans are gaining steam in the closing days. The GOP advantage in votes cast more than doubled over the last week to 4,515 votes… It still may not be enough for Jolly, given the way swing voters ultimately pick the winner in this centrist district. And, that trend was reversed, albeit slightly, this morning:
Consider that in 2012, Republicans had cast nearly 11,000 more votes than Democrats by election day and then outperformed Democrats on election day by more than 9,000 votes. Barack Obama still narrowly won the district.In 2010, Republicans had a nearly 12,400-vote lead prior to election day and then on election day cast more than 8,600 more votes than Democrats. Sink still narrowly beat Republican Rick Scott in the district.It's shaping up to be a squeaker, but giving the recent track record of District 13 voters, Jolly needs an even stronger GOP surge in the final stretch and on Tuesday.…The national GOP does not appear to have great faith, let alone warm feelings for Jolly and his campaign team, based on the anonymous Washington Republicans who trashed his "Keystone Cops" campaign team in a Politico report published Friday.The unsourced complaints about Jolly from the story include "inept fundraising, top advisers stationed hundreds of miles away from the district in the state capital and the poor optics of a just-divorced, 41-year-old candidate accompanied on the campaign trail by a girlfriend 14 years his junior."Throwing a campaign under the bus practically on the eve of a seemingly toss-up election is hardly a vote of confidence-- or a signal that Jolly would be encouraged to run again in November should he fall short.
The media-- both national and local-- has been portraying tomorrow's results as "test of whether Democrats can counter GOP attacks on the president’s health care overhaul." This morning Gallup reported that the uninsured rate is dropping as the Affordable Care Act is kicking in. "The uninsured rate has been declining since the fourth quarter of 2013, after hitting an all-time high of 18.0% in the third quarter. The uninsured rate for the first quarter of 2014 so far includes a 16.2% reading for January and 15.6% for February. The uninsured rate for almost every major demographic group has dropped in 2014 so far. The percentage of uninsured Americans with an annual household income of less than $36,000 has dropped the most-- by 2.8 percentage points-- to 27.9% since the fourth quarter of 2013, while the percentage of uninsured blacks has fallen 2.6 points to 18.3%. Hispanics remain the subgroup most likely to lack health insurance, with an uninsured rate of 37.9%… Additionally, healthcare aides in the Obama administration announced on Wednesday that Americans will be able to renew old health insurance plans for up to three years, even if the plans do not comply with ACA policies."
The suburban St. Petersburg district is considered a proving ground for each party’s political messages and a possible bellwether for the midterm elections. Officials in both parties have said in recent days that private polls show the race to be close. Each has made late appeals for campaign cash.Former President Bill Clinton recorded a phone call last week seeking local volunteers to help with Sink’s campaign and a half dozen House Democrats emailed fundraising appeals to their own supporters on behalf of her. More than a third of Jolly’s campaign contributions came from members of Congress.Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Paul Ryan joined Jolly on a conference call with voters, while Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul recorded a phone message for the GOP nominee aimed at supporters of Libertarian candidate Lucas Overby.…[I]n an effort to deflect Republican attacks on the health care law and rollout problems, Democrats also plan to prominently feature proposed Republican curbs on Social Security and Medicare in competitive races across the country.“Those issues are paramount,” said Rep. Steve Israel of New York, who chairs the House Democrats’ campaign operation. “Having Republicans say that they want to cut Medicare but continue to fund massive subsidies to big oil companies… that will be a defining theme.”Republicans answer by highlighting how some Medicare payment rates were cut by Democrats to help pay for the health overhaul. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has spent $1.2 million on ads arguing Sink is “still pushing Obamacare,” the 2010 law that it calls “a disaster for families and seniors.” Another spot says Sink supports Obamacare “even though it means higher costs and lost benefits,” citing reductions to Medicare Advantage, which lets seniors enroll in Medicare through private insurance plans.Jolly has put up ads promising spending cuts, balanced budgets and replacing the health care law.Sink has outspent Jolly by more than 3 to 1 on television advertising, though outside groups aligned with the GOP have helped narrow the overall Democratic advantage.Having focused much of his campaign on the botched launch of the health care law, Jolly has lately found himself on the defensive about entitlement programs. On a recent morning at a senior center here, the former lobbyist devoted the bulk of his remarks to rebutting Democratic ads that say he worked for a group that wants to privatize Social Security. The spot also charges that he “praised a plan ending Medicare’s guarantee.”The Republicans’ national campaign committee for House candidates has poured $2 million into TV ads, including one picturing Jolly’s opponent next to Obama and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi. “She’s fighting for them, not for us,” the ad says of Sink.Sink, formerly the state’s chief financial officer, tries to blunt the criticism in her own ads. One spot says repealing the health care law would “force seniors to pay thousands more for prescription drugs.”“We can’t go back to letting insurance companies do whatever they want,” Sink says in the ad.
Polling has been neck-and-neck and the two camps' get out the vote efforts are going to be the whole game tomorrow. For progressives, there's nothing here one way or the other and if there's anything you want to actually do, let me suggest that you contribute what you can to George Gollin's campaign in the other 13th congressional district.