For those still nervous about generic congressional polls showing less strength among generic Democrats than it was a few weeks ago I want to offer two graphics. Above is one showing how Democrat Margaret Good fared on Tuesday against the son of Republican Congressman Vern Buchanan in a Trump district in southwest Florida.
The shriveled far right of the Democratic Party, the Blue Dogs-- the heart and soul of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party-- just endorsed four new congressional candidates, a clear warning that these candidates will be voting against progressive proposals. So, joining already-endorsed Brad Ashford (NE), Anthony Brindisi (NY), Paul Davis (KS), Gretchen Driskell (MI), R.D.
No one knows how to dampen down voter enthusiasm as well as corporate DemocratsLately I've found myself spending an hour or two a day hand-holding long-shot candidates in R+15 districts who are freaking out because the Democratic advantage in polling pitting a generic Democrat against a generic Republican has taken a dip.
There are 5 special elections for state legislative seats before March-- 3 of them this week. Of the races this week, 2 are in Minnesota-- one in each house-- and one is in Florida. We looked at the Florida race a few weeks ago. It pits Margaret Good, a moderate Democrat, against Republican Congressman Vern Buchanan's son James HD-72 (Sarasota area, the heart of his daddy's district).
Mike RevisMissouri is safe Trump country, right? Maybe not as safe as the pundits think. Yes, Trump beat Hillary 1,594,511 (56.8%) to 1,071,068 (38.1%). Of Missouri's 114 counties, Hillary won 4-- Boone, Jackson, St Louis County,and St Louis City (which gets counted separately). She lost Jefferson County 68,973 (65.1%) to 31,546 (29.8%). It includes suburbs south of St Louis and is very white (95.4%) and less than 1% black.
A couple of weeks ago, Wisconsin's far right governor, Scott Walker, warned that Patty Schachtner's upset win over state Rep. Adam Jarchow in a deep red state Senate district was a "wake up call" for the GOP. And he's now figured out how to answer that call. He's refusing to allow special elections to fill vacant seats in the state legislature.
Tennessee's 14th senatorial district includes all or part of 5 cities: Ardmore, Fayetteville, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Shelbyville and all or part of Bedford, Lincoln, Marshall, Moore and Rutherford counties. The median household income is $45,900, somewhat higher than the state's median ($42,500). It's part of Scott DesJarlais' congressional district, which has a PVI of R+20.
We've been following state legislative races because we're interested in the clear pattern that shows a stunning swing towards Democratic candidates-- often a result a Democratic enthusiasm and the lack of enthusiasm among Republicans. And, more often than not, the enthusiasm levels are about Trump and the Republican Congress.
The best shot for a Democratic win last night was in an open state Senate district in the far west of Wisconsin. The Republicans had held the district for nearly two decades and Trump beat Hillary in the rural district massively in 2016. But Trump's popularity-- as well as Governor Scott Walker's-- have plummeted. And Democrat Patty Schachtner upset Republican state Rep.
Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district is in the southwest corner of the state. Most of the voters live in the hilly suburbs west, south and east of Pittsburgh although there are large rural sections of the district in Washington and Greene counties. The 2015 PVI (R+10) slipped to R+11 this year after Trump won the district 58.1% to 38.5%.
