2018 gubernatorial races

How loyal a Republican candidate is to Señor Trumpanzee is now being treated as a determining factor by many. Awesome-- for Democrats. At a time when Republicans who embrace Trump top strongly risk losing independent voters or risk losing Trumpists by shunning him, the party is further splintering. As the Washington Post reported a few days ago, Michigan's far right gubernatorial candidate, Attorney General Bill Schuette, is running the TV ad above that starts and ends with Trump's endorsement.

The Michigan primary is late in the season, August 7. Not that he could win again, unpopular incumbent current Governor Rick Snyder is term-limited out and it's likely a Democrat is going to win in November. But which Democrat. The establishment seems to be rallying around Gretchen Whitmer, former state Senate Minority Leader.

Long before he sold out and became a Big Pharma lobbyist, Howard Dean started DFA-- then Dean for America, now Democracy for America, and run by Howard's brother Jim Dean.

Until this morning, Nebraska Republican state Senator Bob Krist was running for governor as an independent.

Mike RevisMissouri is safe Trump country, right? Maybe not as safe as the pundits think. Yes, Trump beat Hillary 1,594,511 (56.8%) to 1,071,068 (38.1%). Of Missouri's 114 counties, Hillary won 4-- Boone, Jackson, St Louis County,and St Louis City (which gets counted separately). She lost Jefferson County 68,973 (65.1%) to 31,546 (29.8%). It includes suburbs south of St Louis and is very white (95.4%) and less than 1% black.

According to a Gallup survey released a week ago, Trump's overall jon approval is 38% and his disapproval is 56%. What does that tell us for the midterms 9 months from now? Not all that much, primarily because despite Trump's overall poor showing, it's in states that senators and governors are elected and in congressional districts where House members are reelected, not nationally.

"How many sats are the Democrats going to pick up in November," one of the savviest campaign managers I know asked me. I don't know, I told him. Between 60 and 70, something like that. "Why are you losing faith?" he asked. "Last time I asked, you said 75." Oh, it could be 75... or 60 or 70 but you're gonna win for sure. He's worried. They're always worried. Good. They need to be.

Tuesday, the Denver Post reported that far right extremist, xenophobe and front-runner for the Republican nomination for Colorado governor, Tom Tancredo was dropping out of the race-- after just three months-- because he can't raise any money. As of Dec. 31 he had collected less than $75,000 in campaign contributions.

Ohio is the ultimate swing state and its 18 electoral votes are highly prized. After 1960-- when Ohio got it wrong and backed Nixon over Kennedy-- Ohio has been part of the winning coalition in every presidential race. In the 5 most recent Ohio results, George Bush beat Gore 49.97% to 46.46% and then beat Kerry 50.81% to 48.71%. Then Obama beat McCain 51.50% to 46.91% and beat Romney 50.67% to 47.69%.

EMILY's List has come up with a way for Democrats to lose in Florida againYesterday Lisa Hagen wrote that Florida governor, Trump crony and crooked multimillionaire Rick Scott is running into headwinds as he considers his Senate run against Bill Nelson.