Active Shooter by Nancy Ohanian Based on a national voter survey released yesterday, the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) reported that Trump will lose by 14 points (54% to 40%), unless voter turnout is extremely high-- which looks likely-- in which case Trump will lose by 18 points (56% to 38%). Some of the most interesting findings show an extremely bifurcated America-- with normal people basing their stands on reality, while Republicans live in a Fox/Hate Talk Radio bubble in an alternative reality.
• About three in four Americans (76%) think that shutdowns, mask mandates, and other steps taken by state and local governments since the coronavirus pandemic began are reasonable measures to protect people, including majorities of Republicans, independents, and Democrats (56%, 71%, and 94%, respectively). • Nine in ten Democrats (90%), 78% of independents, and 65% of Republicans say they always wear masks in public places. White evangelical Protestants stand out among religious groups as less likely than others to report wearing a mask all the time in public (63% vs. 77% and higher among all other groups). • White evangelical Protestants are the only religious group who are more likely to say that Trump rather than Biden has strong religious beliefs (43% vs. 18%) and best models religious values with his actions and leadership (49% vs. 18%). • A majority of Americans (55%), including 24% of Republicans and 77% of Democrats, say they are not at all confident that President Trump will concede defeat if Biden is declared the winner of the election. One-third of Americans (36%), including 26% of Republicans and 46% of Democrats, are not at all confident that Republican leaders in Congress would demand Trump leave office if he refuses to concede an election loss. • Two-thirds of Americans (66%) say the winner of the popular vote rather than the Electoral College should determine the next president. • Partisan views of the other party are harsh.◦ Eight in ten Republicans (81%) say the Democratic Party has been taken over by socialists, compared to 17% who say the Democratic Party is trying to make capitalism work for average Americans. ◦ Eight in ten Democrats (78%) say the Republican Party has been taken over by racists, compared to 20% who say the Republican Party is trying to protect the country against outside threats.• Democrats (17%) are significantly less likely than they were in both 2018 (26%) and 2015 (32%) to believe that police killings of Black men are isolated incidents, as white Democrats’ views have become more aligned with those of African Americans over the last five years. By contrast, Republican views that police killings of African Americans are isolated incidents (79%) have not changed significantly since 2015 (82%). • Majorities of all religious groups, including 58% of white evangelical Protestants, say immigrants living in the U.S. illegally should be allowed a way to become citizens, provided they meet certain requirements. • Majorities of Democrats (91%), independents (79%), and Republicans (53%) oppose an immigration border policy that separates children from their parents and charges parents as criminals when they enter the country without permission. • Democrats (76%) and independents (61%) are about twice as likely as Republicans (31%) to think that climate change will cause them harm. • Majorities of Democrats, independents, and Republicans favor guaranteeing all Americans access to affordable childcare (95%, 85%, and 71%, respectively) and guaranteeing all Americans a minimum income (88%, 69%, and 52%, respectively).
On Sunday, NY Times reporters tried Maggie Haberman and Alexander Burns explaining why Trump's campaign seems so dysfunctional and is flailing so badly. "Away from their candidate and the television cameras," wrote Haberman and Burns, "some of Mr. Trump’s aides are quietly conceding just how dire his political predicament appears to be, and his inner circle has returned to a state of recriminations and backbiting. Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff, is drawing furious blame from the president and some political advisers for his handling of Mr. Trump’s recent hospitalization, and he is seen as unlikely to hold onto his job past Election Day. Mr. Trump’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien, has maintained to senior Republicans that the president has a path forward in the race but at times has conceded it is narrow. Some midlevel aides on the campaign have even begun inquiring about employment on Capitol Hill after the election, apparently under the assumption that there will not be a second Trump administration for them to serve in. (It is not clear how appealing the Trump campaign might be as a résumé line for private-sector employers.)... Among some of Mr. Trump’s lieutenants, there is an attitude of grit mixed with resignation: a sense that the best they can do for the final stretch is to keep the president occupied, happy and off Twitter as much as possible, rather than producing a major shift in strategy. Often, their biggest obstacle is Mr. Trump himself."
Instead of delivering a focused closing message aimed at changing people’s perceptions about his handling of the coronavirus, or making a case for why he can revive the economy better than Mr. Biden can, Mr. Trump is spending the remaining days on a familiar mix of personal grievances, attacks on his opponents and obfuscations. He has portrayed himself as a victim, dodged questions about his own coronavirus testing, attacked his attorney general and the F.B.I. director and equivocated on the benefits of mask-wearing. Rather than drawing a consistent contrast with Mr. Biden on the economy, strategists say, the president’s preference is to attack Mr. Biden’s son Hunter over his business dealings and to hurl personal insults like “Sleepy Joe” against a candidate whose favorability ratings are much higher than Mr. Trump’s. [S]ome prominent Republicans have noted in newly direct language the possibility-- and even the likelihood-- of defeat for the president. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a close ally, said this week that Democrats had “a good chance of winning the White House,” while Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska said his party might be facing a “blood bath.” Though fear of retaliation by Mr. Trump has muzzled most members of the party, strategists are deeply concerned that Mr. Trump might spend the final weeks of the campaign entertaining and energizing his existing supporters while eschewing any concerted effort to find new ones-- an approach that could cripple other Republicans running for office.
And that retaliation theme against Republicans was highlighted by Sam Stein and Asawin Suebsaeng at the Daily Beast yesterday where they reported on a virtual game of chicken about who is going to throw who under the bus sooner-- Trump going nuts on Republicans in Congress or Republicans in Congress claiming they never heard of anyone named Trump. Under The Bus by Nancy Ohanian "That sense of paranoia," wrote Suebsaeng and Stein, "has been fed by the president’s aides and confidants, who have flagged news coverage for him of Republican politicians either openly criticizing his conduct or else trying to distance themselves from a looming possible electoral bloodbath. According to one of the sources with direct knowledge, the president is already contemplating retribution... Some of the coverage that has been bookmarked for Trump includes recent stories on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who has not only split with the president on coronavirus-related stimulus legislation but made a point of saying he hadn’t been to the White House in weeks because of its cavalier approach to the pandemic. Trump’s frictions with Republican senators don’t stop there. This past week, the president attacked Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) on Twitter over 'a nasty rumor' that she was going to oppose his Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett. He said of the endangered incumbent: 'Not worth the work!'... Beyond that, there is strong suspicion within Trump’s inner sanctum that Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R-NE) office leaked the contents of a call he held with constituents in which he chastised the president for embracing dictators and not condemning conspiracists. Trump’s anger with the call boiled over on Saturday with yet another Twitter attack." Back to Haberman and Burns who wrote that "There is also growing frustration among congressional Republicans that the White House has not driven a strong positive message about Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination-- a confirmation battle that Republicans until recently regarded as their best chance for a political turnaround. Republicans and allies of the president have trained their ire specifically on Mr. Meadows, viewing some of his actions, like showing up at Ms. Barrett’s hearings, as a form of personal brand-building.
In some respects, the trajectory of Mr. Trump’s campaign in its final weeks reflects longstanding structural weaknesses and internal divisions. ...For much of the past four years, Mr. Kushner [basically a moron] had cast himself as the chief executive of the re-election effort, but he pulled back from that role during the summer and in September, when the political environment had clearly soured. Instead, he thrust himself into a number of diplomatic negotiations in the Middle East that have little evident salience in the election. He has become more engaged in recent weeks, officials said. ...Many Republicans have resorted to hoping that the president might be disciplined enough for the remaining 16 days to narrow the gap with Mr. Biden and salvage the party’s House and Senate candidates. But few people close to Mr. Trump present the path ahead to him in those terms, Republicans say. They recognize that the president knows he outpolls most G.O.P. candidates in their own districts or states and that suggesting to him that he is on track to lose would be unlikely to produce constructive results.
Early Monday morning, Paul Kane wrote in his Post column that "In competitive Senate races across the country, including states where Trump remains popular, Republican incumbents are facing a conundrum: how to prove their pro-Trump bona fides to a MAGA movement that sees many longtime Republicans as insufficiently pure while stopping the hemorrhaging among suburban moderates who wonder why they have enabled the president... The result for [Joni] Ernst and as many as a half-dozen of her GOP colleagues may be the worst of both worlds, in which they risk alienating energized Trump backers if they criticize the president but then, if they stick with him, lose some centrist voters who have soured on Trump and are open to voting for a Democrat." The same is happening in House races, of course. I asked Audrey Denney how her Trump-loving opponent Doug LaMalfa is walking that tight-rope. "LaMalfa isn’t walking the tight rope," she told me. "He has let his extremist obstructionist flag fly with zero regard to facts or science. That is leaving all of the more moderate Republicans and conservative NPP voters up for grabs! We’re going to pull this off."I also asked Michigan state Rep. Jon Hoadley the same question about the Trump enabler he's running against."Time and time again, Fred Upton has failed to stand up to President Trump. Just as with all other decisions in his 34-year career, Upton considers political expediency first and foremost before weighing the interests of the district he's been elected to represent. As Donald Trump continues to stoke the flames of domestic terrorism and incite violence amongst his supporters, Upton remains unsurprisingly silent. Our district deserves better, and it's past time we change our Representative."
