by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week
Global average mortality and loss rates down 5x over last decade. Effect is strongest for poorest populations. [link]
Important new research on the underlying topography of Antarctica [link]
Two intervals of distinctly lower Indian Ocean sea level during the last two millennia occurred during times of relatively low incoming solar radiation https://nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0503-7
Mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet [link] We have seen an acceleration from ~2004-2012 and a deceleration from ~2013-17, attributed to atmospheric circulation & local ocean temp.
Analysis of polarimetric satellite measurements suggest stronger cooling due to aerosol-cloud interactions [link]
Three new SST reconstructions near coastal Peru indicate temperatures have plummeted in the last 50 years to the coldest of the Holocene. Regional temperatures were ~4 °C warmer than today a few thousand years ago. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080634
Earth system sensitivity inferred for the Pliocene [link]
Coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean dynamics in Dansgaard-Oescger events [link]
A new compilation of globally gridded night time marine air temperatures [link]
Momentum grows for mapping the global seafloor [link]
“Seasonal Changes in the North Atlantic Cold Anomaly: The Influence of Cold Surface Waters From Coastal Greenland and Warming Trends Associated With Variations in Subarctic Sea Ice Cover” https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JC015379
In ancient Scottish tree rings, a cautionary tale on climate, politics and survival. A 1600s famine with echoes in the age of Brexit. [link]
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming https://go.nature.com/2EjToqX
Arctic Temperature Was 7°C Warmer Than Today 10,000 Years Ago
[link]
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Challenging the interpretation of trends in the upper troposphere and stratosphere in context of global warming [link]
4 reconstructions from the central and western High Arctic reveal July temperatures were about 1-2°C warmer than today during most of the 1st millennium and Medieval period (MCA). https://tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/15230430.2019.1640527?needAccess=true
Tree ring records confirm that years of Europe’s Great Famine 1315-1317 were among wettest in 700 years, putting this historic event in context of Europe’s long-term climate trends. http://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2019/12/12/one-of-europes-worst-famines-likely-caused-by-devastating-floods
The Little Ice Age caused cool short summers and long cold winters from 1400-1850, with the worst between 1550 and 1700. It also made New England history. http://newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/six-ways-little-ice-age-made-history/…
Review of the technology and methodologies of estimating the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and to highlight emerging developments and observational gaps https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000654
Characterising the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.1858…
Policy & technology
Rethinking how we describe ‘business as usual’ on climate change [link]
Looks like rejecting RCP8.5 is picking up steam. Article by David Wallace-Wells: Good news on climate change: worst case looks unrealistic [link]
Net zero emissions energy systems: challenges of the hard to mitigate sectors [link]
Glen Peters on the carbon budget: 0.5C makes a big difference for mitigation [link]
The cost of decommissioning wind turbines: who pays? [link]
Matt Ridley: We’ve just had the best decade in human history [link]
Who is winning the climate wars? [link]
Carbon Brief: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Madrid http://j.mp/2S212hA
UN speakers push population reduction for ‘climate emergency’ [link]
Robert Stavins: What did (and did not happen) in Madrid at COP25 [link]
China now accounts for 30% of global emissions [link]
What it would take to get to the UK to zero emissions by 2050 with existing technologies: an engineering perspective. http://ukfires.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Absolute-Zero-online.pdf
Michael Liebreich: Peak emissions are closer than you think [link]
Investment banker are now waging the war on coal [link]
Judge finds US liable for Hurricane Harvey damage [link]
In most of the U. S., particularly along the Mississippi River, it would cost taxpayers less to buy and conserve vacant land in floodplains now than to pay federal insurance claims and recovery funds over the next 30-100 years says [link]
Decarbonizing space heating with air source heat pumps [link]
The rights and wrongs of central-bank greenery [link]
Apple, Google, Dell, Microsoft and Tesla named in “landmark” lawsuit over child cobalt miner deaths and injuries. [link]
Converting coal plants to biomass could fuel climate crisis [link]
Too much wind and solar raises power system costs. Deep decarbonization requires nuclear https://utilitydive.com/news/too-much-wind-and-solar-raises-power-system-costs-deep-decarbonization-req/568080/…
The next nuclear plants will be small, svelte and safer [link]
In a win-win for #agriculture, new research confirms that Midwest #Farmers can boost yields of soy & corn and improve soil health through reduced tilling. https://sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/12/191206132228.htm…
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About science & scientists
Dan Kahan: Why smart people are vulnerable to putting tribe before truth [link]
Neil Jacobs has been nominated to be the Administrator of NOAA (good choice) [link]
White House officials are working on an executive order to require that publicly funded science be obtainable for free immediately, prompting publishers to panic about the future of their business models [link]
Mike Smith: Why am I so critical about climate ‘science’? [link]
When great minds think unalike: inside science’s replication crisis [link]
Journalists must also cover the mistakes of science [link]
Cliff Mass on climate anxiety [link]
Threats to Free Speech at University, and How to Deal with Them—Part 1 https://areomagazine.com/2019/12/10/threats-to-free-speech-at-university-and-how-to-deal-with-them-part-1/…
The free college fantasy [link]
Helping students prepare to argue both sides of an assigned topic can add nuance to instructors’ world views as well, providing all parties with “a stronger understanding of the gray area of life.” https://kqed.org/mindshift/54968/how-classroom-political-discussions-controversies-too-prepare-students-for-needed-civic-participation…
Lew is upset: Comment threads on blogs can influence climate change attitudes by altering perceived consensus [link]