by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye the past 4(!) weeks.
A hidden province of volcanoes in West Antarctica may accelerate sea level rise [link]
The Dominant Role of Extreme Precipitation Events in Antarctic Snowfall Variability buff.ly/2U3stFU
The Strength of Low-Cloud Feedbacks and Tropical Climate: A CESM Sensitivity Study buff.ly/2NiqxqB
A preliminary calculation of cement carbon dioxide in China from 1949 to 2050 [link]
Spring rainfall on permafrost is a growing factor in Arctic warming, but it hasn’t been accounted for in most projections. New research suggests the increase in methane emissions could be twice the expected rate. [link]
On the westward shift of tropical Pacific climate variability since 2000 [link]
Unabated Bottom Water Warming and Freshening in the South Pacific Ocean buff.ly/2TZnHtd
Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7±0.5 ppb/yr), 2015 (10.1±0.7 ppb/yr), 2016 (7.0±0.7 ppb/yr) and 2017 (7.7±0.7 ppb /yr), at rates not observed since the 1980s. Implications for the Paris Agreement: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2018GB006009
Centennial-scale temperature change in last millennium simulations and proxy-based reconstructions https://buff.ly/2EnACjj) buff.ly/2EnACjj
How well does a scientific model represent the real Earth system? We might need to re-envision it our ways of finding out. [link]
Antarctic sea ice Control on the Depth of North Atlantic Deep Water buff.ly/2BIaQVg
Carbon from fossil fuels (not wildfires) biggest source of arctic pollution [link]
But now climate change has claimed its first mammal species extinction (that we know of). https://amp.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/our-little-brown-rat-first-climate-change-caused-mammal-extinction-20190219-p50yry.html#click=https://t.co/jKrZhijyoV
A new statistical tool could extend predictions of atmospheric river activity by as much as 5 weeks. [link]
Global impacts of ENSO reach into the stratosphere [link]
Spatial early warning signals for impending regime shifts: A practical framework for application in real‐world landscapes buff.ly/2IjiQld
An interesting new analysis from Australia: Sea levels in and around Sydney Harbour 1886-2018 https://saltbushclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/sea-levels-sydney.pdf
“Can you take the heat?” Heat-induced health symptoms are associated with protective behaviors buff.ly/2V4K9kG
New NASA Study Solves Climate Mystery, Confirms Methane Spike Tied to Oil and Gas [link]
Relative roles of dynamic and thermodynamic processes in causing positive and negative global mean SST trends during the past 100 years buff.ly/2Ed5IK7
Early Meteorological Data in Southern Spain During the Dalton Minimum buff.ly/2EeuVEc
Hydrothermal carbon release to the ocean and atmosphere from the eastern equatorial Pacific during the last glacial termination (open access) buff.ly/2DUb7on
Influence of solar activity changes on European rainfall https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682618305273
How LA’s golf courses and manicured lawns contribute significant greenhouse gases [link]
Embracing the complexity of extreme weather events when quantifying their likelihood of recurrence in a warming world buff.ly/2Gq7dXP
Towards a more complete quantification of the global carbon cycle (open access) buff.ly/2GKSdmW
The melting of high-elevation glaciers due to climate change may temporarily offset streamflow declines. [link]
Atmospheric circulation modulates the spatial variability of temperature in the Atlantic‐Arctic region buff.ly/2TQApKG
On the timescales and length scales of the Arctic sea ice thickness anomalies: a study based on 14 reanalyses buff.ly/2trrcN7
Estimating the likelihood of future temperature extremes [link]
Impact of Atmospheric Heat and Moisture Transport on the Arctic Warming buff.ly/2S1gRlc
Climate changes in interior semi-arid Spain from the last interglacial to the late Holocene https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-16
Recent Tropical Expansion: Natural Variability or Forced Response?: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0444.1#.XGHT1M76pOw.twitter
new paper on influence of Asian mountains (ie the Tibetan Plateau/ Himalayas) on typhoons and precipitation [link]
Variation in MERRA-2 aerosol optical depth and absorption aerosol optical depth over China from 1980 to 2017 buff.ly/2Dpb9nA
Interesting new paper on the AMO https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095927319300210
Climate‐Induced Changes in the Risk of Hydrological Failure of Major Dams in California buff.ly/2WMb8Dm
Very strong atmospheric #methane growth in the four years 2014‐2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GB006009
Insights into the global aerosol size distribution from the largest synthesised collection of in-situ aircraft measurements https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1337) doi.org/10.5194/acp-20…
Winter upper ocean stability and ice-ocean feedbacks in the sea-ice-covered Southern Ocean.” A few takeaways follow… (1/5) (link: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JPO-D-18-0184.1) journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.117…
Climate change suppresses Santa Ana winds of Southern California and sharpens their seasonality buff.ly/2ML6lxl
A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic [link]
Mechanisms and Impacts of a Partial AMOC Recovery Under Enhanced Freshwater Forcing buff.ly/2S0ZkOU
Changes in gyre circulation cause decadal variability in North Atlantic decadal sea level. [link]
Does the shoe fit? Real versus imagined ecological footprints [link]
Earth system impacts of the European arrival and Great Dying in the Americas after 1492 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379118307261
What is the polar vortex and how does it influence weather? [link]
Finding sources of uncertainty in the spatial pattern of global warming [link]
Pacific Ocean forcing and atmospheric variability are the dominant causes of spatially widespread droughts in the contiguous United States buff.ly/2sUs7pp
Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes buff.ly/2Wq1mqp
Holocene environmental history in high‐Arctic North Greenland revealed by a combined biomarker and macrofossil approach (link: https://buff.ly/2sRP8sK) buff.ly/2sRP8sK
Model derived uncertainties in deep ocean temperature trends between 1990‐2010 buff.ly/2FV6yxs
Recent acceleration of Arabian Sea warming induced by the Atlantic‐western Pacific trans‐basin multidecadal variability buff.ly/2G8oR1d
Have synergies between nitrogen deposition and atmospheric CO2 driven the recent enhancement of the terrestrial carbon sink? buff.ly/2WliT2N
Is equatorial Africa getting wetter or drier? Insights from an evaluation of long‐term, satellite‐based rainfall estimates for western Uganda (link: https://buff.ly/2UmgC5Q) buff.ly/2UmgC5Q
Social science, technology & policy
Understanding high-end climate change: from impacts to co-creating integrated and transformative solutions [link]
An antiquated California water law encourages political conflict rather than market transactions https://libertarianenvironmentalism.com/2019/02/20/an-antiquated-california-water-law-encourages-political-conflict-rather-than-market-transactions/
The Green New Deal seeks a complete transition to clean energy by 2030. How much battery storage would an all-renewable grid require, especially in the most trying of winter weather conditions? [link]
Miami battles rising seas [link]
Policies to reduce CO2 emissions: Fallacies and evidence from the United States and California (link: https://buff.ly/2Ng1yEp) buff.ly/2Ng1yEp
Even in optimum weather, lithium-ion batteries lose about one percent of range every day, but the #PolarVortex caused tremendous loss of range for electric vehicles in the Midwest. [link]
Attributable damage liability in a non-linear climate [link]
Stochastic Trend: Energy Efficiency Improvements Do Not Save Energy https://stochastictrend.blogspot.com/2019/02/energy-efficiency-improvements-do-not.html
Perspective: Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system go.nature.com/2U2teyU
Direct air capture of CO2 is getting better and offering intriguing options [link]
Emission mechanism and reduction countermeasures of agricultural greenhouse gases – a review buff.ly/2S1tSee
French, R. D. (2019). Is It Time to Give Up on Evidence-based Policy? Four Answers. Policy & Politics, 47(1), 151-168. https://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/tpp/pap/2019/00000047/00000001/art00009
“Given that CCS is expected to account for the mitigation of ~4-20% of total CO₂ emissions, in 2050 the CCS industry will need to be larger by a factor of 2–4 in volume terms than the current global oil industry” [link]
Could a new superplant solve the climate crisis? https://www.ft.com/content/aa055276-2419-11e9-8ce6-5db4543da632
About science & scientists
Scientist who resisted censorship of climate report lost her job [link]
Machine learning ‘causing science crisis’ – a crisis of reproducibility in science goes a lot deeper than machine learning. [link]
Oregon #Anesthesiology Doctor’s Personal #ClimateChange Battle Spurs Industry Change [link]
Academic freedom and the scope of protections for extramural speech: Why controversial remarks by faculty must be protected. https://www.aaup.org/article/academic-freedom-and-scope-protections-extramural-speech#.XGgmzy2ZM3H
Machine Learning’s Amazing Ability to Predict Chaos. [link]
UCSF’s dangerous targeting of academic researchers [link]
Based on citations, a study suggests that smaller teams come up with better new ideas than larger collaborations [link]
Is email making professors stupid? [link]
Artificial intelligence alone won’t solve the complexity of earth sciences [link]
Durham student was sacked as editor of a student journal, removed from his post as president of a student society, and has now been banned from a debate on another campus. And for what? Retweeting an article. [link]
Scenarios and Decision Support for Security and Conflict Risks in the Context of Climate Change [link]
When censorship is crowdsourced [link]
Decisions are largely emotional, not logical: the neuroscience of decision making [link]
RIP Walter Munk [link]. A recent interview [link]
Scientific Gullibility, now in press. How did Psych get into the mess its in? Some answers here: http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~jussim/Gullibility.docx
Former UW-Madison professor Don Moynihan on campus speech and attack on UW political science professor Ken Mayer: “If we look the other way when academic freedom is attacked, expect it to be attacked more often.” [link]
David Spiegelhalter: “You should not want to be trusted. Instead, what you should want to do is to demonstrate trustworthiness, because that is within your control.” spr.ly/6012Eutum
Intensification of El Niño rainfall variability over the tropical Pacific in the slow oceanic response to global warming buff.ly/2WOcMEg