Change Research-- Polling for the People-- is a polling firm that began work in 2017 and claims to have "the vision of democratizing access to public opinion research to create a more humane and scientific society. We do that by making polling accessible for down-ballot candidates, and by enabling deeper, more frequent dives into public opinion for bigger races." Last week they polled the New Hampshire Democratic primary and I ws fascinated by their presenation-- which I have only been able to find on Twitter.Polling at this early point in the cycle is just for entertainment's sake and primarily measures name recognition. But... since New Hampshire voters take their duty as the first primary in the country seriously, maybe polling there is worth a little more than anywhere else (other than Iowa). Over all, they find Bernie ahead with Biden close behind. Voters are still not aware of Biden's wretched, corporatist record, only that he was Obama's VP.
• Bernie- 26%• Biden- 24%• Elizabeth Warren- 11%• Beto- 9%• Joe Kennedy III- 9%• Kamala- 4%• Hillary- 3%• Cory Booker- 3%• John Kerry- 2%• Amy Klobuchar- 2%• Bloomberg- 2%
Less than 1%After that the results started getting more interesting. They broke up the results by age. Among voters under 35, Bernie runs away with it-- 48% to Biden's 23%, Beto's 8% and Elizabeth Warren's 5%. Cory is dead last with just 2%.Then among voters over 65, Biden takes a lead-- 23% against Bernie's 23%, Beto's 17%, Joe Kennedy III's 13%, Elizabeth Warren's 11% and Cory's 7%. People my age still remember the glory days of the Kennedy's; in electoral politics, nostalgia is so cute in a dumb way.They asked the voters who their second choice would be and Biden is the second choice for almost everyone-- Bernie's voters, Beto's voters, Warren's voters. Bernie is second choice for Biden's voters.They reported that "Honesty and ethics stood out as the most important quality among New Hampshire Democrats for a possible nominee: 41% said it was the most important quality. 26% said it was most important that a possible nominee could beat Donald Trump."Also, "Likely NH Democratic primary voters overwhelmingly say taxes on wealthy Americans are too low-- and taxes on middle class and lower income Americans are too high."The most important issues among likely primary voters:
• Healthcare- 17%• environmental issues- 11%• legalizing marijuana- 9%• Opioid and addiction- 8%• ending corruption- 7%• voting rights/protecting democratic institutions- 7%• jobs/economy- 7%• education- 6%
When asked if they felt favorably or unfavorably towards different institutions, Black Lives Matter came in at 72% favorable and just 13% unfavorable; unions 64% favorable and just 1% unfavorable; but corporations are looked at badly-- just 8% favorable and 65% unfavorable.In 2016, Bernie overwhelmed Hillary. He beat her in every single county and also beat Trump in every single county. Overall, Bernie took 151,584 votes (60.4%)to Hillary's 95,252 (38.0%). In the GOP primary, Trump won, but with just 100,406 votes, more than Hillary but far less than Bernie. In the polling for 2020, they asked Bernie and Hillary voters who they would vote for in 2020. As you can see, the status quo dull-minded Hillary voters found a good match in Biden. And they're still not going to back the progressive candidate.
