All summer, the polls Marist did for NPR-- there have been 4 so far-- have shown Trump's disapproval rating between 54 and 58%. Their newest poll has his approval at 39%-- and among Independent registered voters his approval is just 32% and his disapproval among this key cohort is 57%. You can win in Wyoming and Mississippi with numbers like that-- but it's tough in Texas, Alaska, Georgia, Montana and even South Carolina! The same poll shows that if the congressional elections were held today, 49% of voters would cast ballots for Democrats and just 43% would cast ballots for Republicans.Those numbers are, at least in part, due to the fact that more and more voters don't trust what Trump says. In March, 37% of registered voters trusted what he had to say about the pandemic, while 60% did not. Today 67% do not and only 31% do. Among Independent voters just 25% trust what he has to say, while a staggering 71% know he's a liar. In the presidential horserace, it's Biden over Trump by 11 points (53-42%), up from an 8 point Biden-lead in June.And a new poll by Pew, also released yesterday, shows that voters are basically anti-Trump, anti-Republican, not pro-Biden and not pro-Democrat. In fact, 56% of people who intend on voting for Biden say the main reason they're behind him is because of their negative opinion of Trump. Republican Members of Congress are slowing catching on.Amanda Terkel reported how ultra-endangered Colorado Senator Cory Gardner (R) was pressured by the Trump campaign to run reelection ads for himself glorifying Señor Trumpanzee, so he did-- on Facebook... everywhere but in Colorado. It's filled with lies and the kind of bullshit that would penalize Gardner if Colorado voters were to see it, so they made the ad non-shareable and non-embeddable. Terkel points out that "every other Facebook ad Gardner is running is being seen in Colorado."McConnell is watching his Senate majority circle the drain. Republican incumbents likely to lose their seats in November, aside from Gardner-- widely considered among the walking dead-- are Susan Collins (ME)-- desperately looking for issues to disagree with Trump on-- Thom Tillis (NC), Martha McSally (AZ), Steve Daines (MT), Joni Ernst (IA), Dan Sullivan (AK)... and even David Perdue (GA). Lindsey Graham (SC) and Miss McConnell (KY Jelly) himself are playing defense.The situation in the House is also dire for the GOP-- and they know it. At dawn on Friday morning, the Washington Post published a piece by Rachel Bade, To The President, He's 'My Kevin.' To Some Republicans He 'Does Nothing But Lick Trump's Boots.' The DCCC isn't targeting McCarthy and the California Democratic Party is largely ignoring his R+14 district, where Hillary only managed to pull 36% of the vote in 2016 and where McCarthy was reelected 131,113 (63.7%) to 74,661 (36.3%) during the so-called "blue wave" election of 2018. He even won in the Los Angeles County part of the district! By the end of June, McCarthy had raised $16,638,004 and his Democratic opponent, Kim Mangone, had raised $486,753. There has been no significant outside spending in the race.McCarthy's problem isn't in California; it's in Washington. Bade wrote that "Discontent with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is on the rise in the House, as Republicans increasingly fearful of a loss by President Trump on Election Day gear up for an intraparty war over the future of the GOP. A cluster of GOP lawmakers is starting to privately question whether the California Republican is putting loyalty to the president over the good of the conference. And a small group of members is discussing whether someone should challenge him for minority leader if Trump is defeated Nov. 3."Yesterday, the biggest lagging indicator in the country, the Cook Report moved 11 races in a Democratic direction and 4 in a Republican direction. Yawn; read them on November 4 when they will have mostly caught up with reality. The one ratings move of interest was in NJ-02, where they have down-graded DCCC Blue Dog Jeff Van Drew, who is now a Trumpist Republican from "lean R" to toss up. Generous of them, considering that the latest poll shows Van Drew losing his seat to Democrat Amy Kennedy 51-46%. But Cook is followed closely in DC-- it's kind of a closed feedback loop-- and the GOP incumbents they are ranking as endangered include, aside from Van Drew, seats being contested by Blue America-endorsed candidates that are tenuously held by Donald Bacon (NE-02), Michael McCaul (TX-10), Fred Upton (MI-06), John Katko (NY-24), and, to a lesser extent, Roger Williams (TX-25). Other endangered Republicans, according to Cook-- which is always weeks behind reality-- include Mike Garcia (CA-25), Ann Wagner (MO-02), Chip Roy (TX-21), Steve Chabot (OH-01), David Schweikert (AZ-06), Scott Perry (PA-10), Lee Zeldin (NY-01), Ross Spano (FL-15), Jim Hagedorn (MN-01), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01), Don Young (AK-AL), Richard Hudson (NC-08), Rodney Davis (IL-13), and Van Taylor (VA-03).
The matter bubbled to the surface this week with the primary election of Marjorie Taylor Greene, a fringe House candidate in Georgia who espouses the QAnon conspiracy theory and has made numerous racist comments. Multiple Republicans implored McCarthy to help defeat her by supporting her primary opponent. But McCarthy refused, phoning the candidate in an apparent peace accord before the primary, while Trump embraced her on Twitter this week as a “future Republican Star.”However, the frustration with McCarthy had already been brewing for weeks as Trump’s polling has sagged behind presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. According to interviews with more than 10 House Republicans-- all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to be frank-- some GOP lawmakers are worried that McCarthy has tied the conference too much to Trump, refusing to stand up to the president or act as a buffer to distinguish the conference from him.Others are also furious that he did not shield them from a recent Trump campaign demand that House members donate to the president’s reelection effort.“There’s no doubt that McCarthy is a Trump loyalist, through and through,” said Doug Heye, a former House GOP leadership staffer who has known McCarthy personally for decades. “I think the challenge for everyone in the Republican conference is, at some point there will be a post-Trump world-- whether that’s coming in three months or later. What direction does the party go?”One House Republican was blunt in criticism of McCarthy, whom Trump has referred to as “my Kevin”: “He does nothing but lick Trump’s boots. That’s all he cares about-- so no, it’s not helpful.”The feeling, however, is far from unanimous. McCarthy, an affable politico, maintains a loyal crop of followers, including many conservatives who once viewed him as a foe. He also has raised $82 million for Republicans this cycle, more than the previous two GOP speakers....McCarthy’s ultimate test will come on Election Day, when not only Trump but the fates of several dozen Republican lawmakers and candidates hang in the balance. If Republicans pick up seats in conservative districts, McCarthy would be more likely to stave off a challenge.“He becomes damaged goods [if Trump loses], but it could be offset if he is successful in helping the GOP conference win back a bunch of seats,” said one senior House Republican. “But if we lose... the Republican conference is probably going to be looking for something different in leadership.”...Freedom Caucus members such as Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) are among McCarthy’s top allies, while those with complaints hail from the moderate or establishment wings.McCarthy’s embrace of Trump has baffled some who knew the moderate, small-business owner who came to Congress in 2007. But McCarthy, more so perhaps than predecessors such as former speaker Paul D. Ryan, is a political animal who understands alliances. When Trump won the nomination in 2016, he made a choice: He was going be with Trump, even as his other colleagues were squeamish.“He changed and became fully committed on the Trump train,” said one House Republican. “Kevin has never been a conservative guy; he’s one of the most moderate guys in the House if you look at his voting record. But all of a sudden there was this metamorphosis where it was ‘Everything Trump.’ And look, there’s high-risk, high-reward with that.”In 2016, it was McCarthy who persuaded Ryan and other House Republicans not to break with Trump over the Access Hollywood tape in which the then-candidate claimed that he could grab women by their private parts with impunity. And during Ryan’s tenure as speaker, McCarthy would often encourage the Wisconsin Republican to keep his disputes with Trump private for the sake of unity.As minority leader, McCarthy has implored his members to do the same, as seen last fall when Republicans rallied together against Democrats’ impeachment inquiry. McCarthy was able to unite the far-right and the moderates under one set of talking points, a turn that might have been more difficult in previous years.But still, some Republicans have questioned whether McCarthy has given Trump too much of a pass. In the summer of 2019, several Republicans implored him to stand up to Trump when the president told four Democratic congresswoman of color to “go back” to their countries of origin, though they were all Americans. McCarthy told one of those people, Rep. Paul Mitchell (Mich.), that Trump doesn’t like to be criticized.In May, despite Trump’s massive war chest breaking records, McCarthy worked with the Trump campaign on a plan to get House Republicans to donate to the president’s reelection. A few weeks later, news broke that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s 42 most vulnerable members had an average 5-to-1 cash advantage over their GOP opponents, while 30 Democratic challengers outraised their Republican opponents in the second quarter of 2020-- putting Democrats in a prime position to grow their majority.Some GOP members were livid, wondering why they were called on to help fund the well-oiled Trump money machine when some of their own were in trouble....There’s also uncertainty about who would take his place or whether anyone would have the nerve to challenge him. Some Republicans have eyed House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (LA), who recently took a political risk and worked to undermine Greene, realizing how much of a problem she could be for the House.But while Scalise at one point pondered a McCarthy challenge years ago, the two seem to have made amends and worked together in the minority. Additionally, Scalise has also been loyal to Trump-- so if Republicans go in another direction post-election, they could cast their eyes elsewhere.That’s one of the reasons for all the recent chatter surrounding House Republican Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney (WY), who has sought to create a lane for herself where she both supports Trump on most policy matters but isn’t afraid to call him out. At a time when Trump wouldn’t wear a mask and seemed to make fun of those who did, Cheney tweeted that real men cover their faces. She also backed Anthony S. Fauci, a member of the White House coronavirus task force and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, when the administration turned against him.
Democrats have never even tried to turn McCarthy into a demon in the eyes of the public, the way the GOP has done with Pelosi (and the way Democrats have done with McConnell). No one is voting against any Republican incumbents because of McCarthy toxicity. Most voters outside of Kern County don't even recognize his name. It's a different dynamic than in Senate races, where support for McConnell-- as well as for Trump-- is a factor in voters' decisions to flip seats from red to blue. In the House races, it's much more purely about Trump and about Democratic candidates successfully campaigning about the unpopular issues that Trump and his enablers have foisted-- and are trying to foist-- on the public. I asked Kara Eastman how that is playing out in her Omaha-based district, as she successfully points out the connected-at-the-hip relationship between Donald J. Trump and Donald J. Bacon. "It’s on us," Kara told me last night, "to continue to remind voters that Don Bacon refused to stray from Trump’s bitter shadow when it mattered the most: First, when he voted against the health care of the district to destroy the affordable care act, next when he supported the tax scam giveaway to the wealthiest Americans, and recently when he voted no to the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act. Despite his smooth-talking demeanor, Bacon can’t help but vote time and time again with the most extreme Trumpian Republicans."Liam O'Mara told me that he and his campaign team have been focussing a lot of their outreach on independents, and finding that "their support for the Trump approach has indeed been slipping. If the national approval ratings for Trump get applied to Calvert's share of the NPPs [no party preference voters] here, then he cannot win, so all our fighting right now is concentrated on turning out our respective base and swaying those independents who are frustrated by Trump. But Calvert is in a tight spot, since he needs to brag about how close he is to Trump in order to motivate his Republican base-- and he has, telling them he's voted with Trump 98% of the time-- but that same point plays badly with the non-partisan NPPs who want to know their concerns are heard. Given how shamelessly partisan and obsequious the Republicans have been to Trump, races all over the country are going to be decided by large numbers of independent voters, and if your message cannot resonate with their economic concerns, good luck!"
