NY-11 should be the kind of district the DCCC should be able to target with a good recruit, make sure he’s well-financed and move on to more difficult districts. NY-11 has a PVI of R+2, although the calculations are off and it’s actually a PVI of zero now. In 2008 McCain beat Obama 118,112 (51%) to 112,044 (48%) but there have been big changes in the district— and in a good way. More immigrants and young people have registered to vote and in 2012 Obama was up big; he beat Romney 110,088 (52%) to 100,811 947%). Republican performance was down by 17,301 voters, a signal of trouble to come. DCCC incompetence, though, may have saved the day for them.Aside from better demographics, the Democrats have something else going for them: a Gambino Family-affiliated thug of an incumbent, Michael "Mikey Suits" Grimm (R), who is currently under indictment on 20 charges and still is being investigated for dozens more— most of them far more serious. This goes way beyond Grimm being captured on TV threatening to throw a reporter off a balcony and vowing to "break him like a boy," claiming subsequently "my Italian came out," although he’s Irish and by "Italian" be presumably meant his Mafia cultural perspective on the world.Instead of cleaning up in NY-11, DCCC chairman Steve Israel recruited another untrustworthy conservative crook, Domenic Recchia, to run s a Democrat and the polls show a dead heat. The latest poll, by Democratic Party polling firm GBA Strategies, shows a 46-46% tie. Earlier last week, non-partisan Siena College did a poll showing Grimm ahead 44-40% If Israel can’t win NY-11, his House colleagues should offer him a seppuku sword... and make a YouTube.All that said, Grimm was contemplating— aloud, on WABC Hate Talk Radio— what exactly will happen if he’s reelected and then sent to prison, both of which are more likely than not at this point.
"If things don't go my way, and I had to step down in January, then there will be a special election," Grimm (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) told WABC radio host Geraldo Rivera during an interview on Thursday. "At least the people of Staten Island and Brooklyn would have qualified people to choose from."…"If, God forbid, things don't go my way, there's a special election," Grimm said, "and I know Staten Island has great people who would run from the Republican side, but, you know what, at least a qualified Democrat can step up."Said Grimm, "I still think that the Republican would win anyway because we have some very, very good elected officials here at the local level that would step up."He didn't name names, and Grimm's office later declined to speculate on any.Grimm has not often publicly discussed the possibility of leaving the House. When he was indicted in April, he said he had no intention of stepping down.Grimm spokesman Nick Iacono on Thursday said that the congressman was "not committing to any kind of contingency or trigger" when talking about the possibility of leaving the House.Iacono said that Grimm was only speaking of what might happen if for any reason he should choose to or be compelled to step down.As for his legal troubles, Grimm told Rivera, "I have a good legal team, and I give that to them."Grimm told Rivera he expects his trial to take "two or three weeks." Jury selection is slated to begin on Dec. 1.Grimm has been indicted on tax evasion, fraud, conspiracy and other charges. He has pleaded not guilty.
Grimm has been expected to use resigning from Congress as a bargaining chip to keep him out of prison or to make sure he receives a sweet sentence in a comfy Club Fed.