Failure! by Nancy OhanianA new SSRS poll for the Public Religion Research Institute is in line with what other 2020 election polls have been saying: Trump's campaign is way up Schitt's Creek without a paddle. His own evangelical base is finally noticing they elected a sociopath and that God has responded with a plague that's getting them and their families and neighbors sick.Overall, Trump's favorability numbers have dropped 7 points since last month. 54% of Americans hold an unfavorable view of him and just 43% have a favorable view.PRRI's analysis discovered that "Americans who live in counties with higher rates of COVID-19 cases (more than the median number of cases per capita) are less likely than those who live in counties with lower rates (fewer than the median number of cases per capita) to hold a favorable view of Trump (42% vs. 52%)." Perhaps most interesting were there findings on how religious groups have been changing their views on Trump.
Trump’s favorability ratings have retreated back to 2019 levels among most demographic groups, with a few exceptions. Currently, two-thirds (66%) of white evangelical Protestants, nearly half (48%) of white Catholics, and 44% of white mainline Protestants hold a favorable view of Trump, a significant decline from their March 2020 ratings (77%, 60%, and 62%, respectively). Among nonwhite Protestants, Trump’s favorability ratings have not significantly changed (from 40% in March to 36% in April 2020). The same is true for religiously unaffiliated Americans. Nearly four in ten (37%) religiously unaffiliated Americans express favorable views of Trump, and these numbers have not changed notably since 2019.Among all white Christians, there is a divide based on living in counties below or above the median number of coronavirus cases. White Christians in less affected counties are more likely than those in more affected counties to say they view Trump favorably (63% vs. 50%). There is no such difference among other religious groups.
There is also an appreciable shift among voters in the battleground states-- and not a shift in Trump's favor either. They found that his favorability in battleground states has "dropped substantially since March, from 53% to 38%."
Trump’s favorability among non-college graduates in battleground states has dropped 20 percentage points between March and April (59% to 39%), putting it more in line with his favorability in 2019 (45%). College graduates in battleground states are just as likely to view Trump favorably (39%) as they were in 2019 (39%).Trump’s favorability among both men and women in battleground states has declined since March. Trump favorability among men has decreased from a majority (55%) in March to 43% in April, while Trump favorability among women has declined from half (50%) in March to 35% in April. Both men and women in battleground states closely resemble their views toward Trump from 2019 (48% and 37%).Trump’s favorability among white Christians in battleground states (48%) has dropped by almost 30 percentage points since March (75%), putting it more in line with his favorability in 2019 (55%). There are no significant shifts among Americans living in battleground states who are not white Christians.
Writing for The Atlantic this week, David Graham noted that Trump is beginning to realize he's losing and has no idea why. "Trump sees his poll numbers sliding and wants to get back on the trail to buck them up, no matter the public-health risks," wrote Graham. "And if he can’t do that, he wants to hold daily press appearances where he can thrust himself into the spotlight, a proxy for rallies. More than a few pundits have likened the daily briefings to rallies, with the added benefit of Anthony Fauci for a prop."
The White House has pursued a Baghdad Bob–style line about the pandemic. “The worst of the pain and suffering is going to be behind us,” Trump said yesterday. “We think we really have passed a big boundary. Much better days are ahead.” His son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner, was still more effusive on Fox and Friends. “We’re on the other side of the medical aspect of this, and I think that we’ve achieved all the different milestones that are needed,” he said. “So the government, federal government, rose to the challenge, and this is a great success story, and I think that that’s really what needs to be told.”To anyone paying much attention, or even anyone simply comparing this with the administration’s benchmarks from a couple of months ago, it is absurd. But in addition to a predilection for hyperbole, Trump has a tendency to believe his own spin, so perhaps he has bought into the narrative he’s peddling....[At] the moment, Trump is losing and he doesn’t understand why. Because the president continues to fixate on the previous election, and interpret it in questionable fashion, he is desperate to keep talking, oblivious to the self-inflicted damage his press conferences create. He has killed the daily briefings, for now, and in name, but continues to speak with reporters and the public in other forums. It scratches his itch for public attention a little, but it can’t replace the big rallies that he seems to believe are the salvation for his campaign. In 2016, Trump’s inability to keep his mouth shut turned out to be just crazy enough to work. He hasn’t grasped that in 2020, it’s the problem, rather than the solution.
