Last cycle the DCCC recruited some guy into CA-25 from Orange County. He had never set foot in the Santa Clarita, Antelope Valley, Simi Valley district before the DCCC decided to shove the local activist out of the race and install this Beverly Hills lawyer. The result was tragic and very predictable. IN a blue-trending suburban swing district, Hillary Clinton beat Trump handily-- 50.3% to 43.6%, a nice solid win, where Romney had beaten Obama by 2 points in 2012. But the congressional race was a mess for the DCCC's hapless interloper. The two candidates spent virtually the same amount of money-- Republican incumbent Steve Knight spent $1,674,968 and the carpetbagger spent $1,672,102. The DCCC spent massively for their loser candidate-- $3,163,901, compared to just $1,463,05 by the NRSC. Pelosi kicked in another $242,487. The results were ugly. Caforio, who had been banking on Hillary's coattails to sweep him into office, ran a pointless, uninspired, uninspiring and lackluster campaign and couldn't keep up with the enthusiasm she was generating on election day, Knight took 138,755 (53.1%) to Caforio's 122,406 votes (46.9%). That's not how you win back a district.This year-- although Cheri Bustos and her reactionary posse have encouraged Caforio to run again-- the DCCC seems to be staying out of the primary. That's partially because the local grassroots candidate is exactly the kind of candidate who can win this district back. Unlike Caforio, who doesn't stand for anything except a desire to advance his own career, Katie Hill has a record of community service and a nature agenda of progressive policies she's running on.A brand new poll from Strategies 360 Research of district voters confirms this is a big way, showing clearly that Katie can beat Knight and that in a rematch, Caforio will score exactly what he scored last time. The polling firm concludes that "Voters respond far more powerfully to Hill’s profile and candidacy than they do to Caforio’s, and Caforio remains highly vulnerable to the same powerful attacks launched against him last year." This are the statements read to poll participants about each candidate:
• Katie Hill, a Democrat, is the daughter of a police officer and a nurse who grew up in our area and still lives with her husband on a small farm in Agua Dulce. She started working at age 12 and put herself through college and grad school, and dedicated her career to serving homeless veterans, families, and seniors as the executive director of a statewide housing and services organization. She has balanced a multi-million dollar budget, overseen a staff of 400 people, passed bipartisan legislation, and helped create thousands of local jobs. Katie is a new kind of leader, a political outsider dedicated to the priorities and needs of people and her community, not special interests or divisive party politics.• Bryan Caforio, a Democrat raised by two public school teachers, lives in Santa Clarita with his wife. He has spent his career as an attorney representing regular people, from helping tenants in need, to taking on banks regarding the housing crisis, to representing whistleblowers who identified waste and fraud in the system costing taxpayer money. Now he is running for Congress to stand up for hardworking people by fighting against the extreme special interests that take advantage of the customers they’re supposed to serve and the politicians who enable them.• Steve Knight, a Republican, has dedicated himself to serving our community as a veteran of both the Army and the police force, and now as our Congressman. He has a reputation as a fierce advocate for veterans, fiscal responsibility, job creation, and public safety, standing up for small businesses and fighting for drought relief. In Congress, he will continue to put the safety of our families and the economic success of our region first, push for less spending and lower taxes, and always fight for our local values.
As you can see in the bar graph, match-ups between Katie and Knight show her leading, while the match-up with Caforio and Knight show him losing again (with a similar ceiling of support). Their conclusion: "Katie Hill is the only Democrat in this race who can beat Steve Knight in a head-to-head general election matchup... Only Hill can put together the broad-based coalition needed to win this seat. She far outperforms Caforio among both Democrats and Independents." In fact, Hill performs better among every group polled, from the far left to the center-right. Further, "Caforio manages a 9-point lead against Knight among women but Hill wins them by double that margin (18 points). Hill outperforms Caforio by a net 6 points among voters favorable toward Bernie Sanders, and she runs a net 8 points ahead of him in the Santa Clarita area to which Caforio is a newcomer.
Hill’s profile produces a far more favorable result than Caforio’s (using Caforio’s own website language). After these balanced profiles, Hill leads Knight 49-45% while Caforio trails him 45-50%. Generically, the table below shows a) that voters are far more likely to support a candidate here with Hill’s background than Caforio’s, and b) the importance they place on support a candidate who “grew up in our area and understands local values”-- a statement to which only Katie Hill can lay claim among the Democratic contenders.
There's someone else running as well, Jess Phoenix, but polling shows her with just 5% support. Blue America has endorsed Katie Hill and if you'd like to help her campaign get out her message, win the primary and beat Knight in 2018, please consider contributing at the ActBlue thermometer on the right. Last night Katie told us that "the results of this poll are extremely encouraging. It shows that voters want a candidate who truly understands their needs and values, and who has a demonstrated track record of working to solve the problems we face as a community. As someone who really does understand what affects my friends, family, and neighbors in this district on a daily basis, I've chosen to focus my platform on addressing those concerns. That means fighting until every single person has full healthcare, and fundamentally rebuilding the middle class. Those are huge undertakings, but actually accompishing them starts with ensuring we have a truly representative government-- real people, who really 'get' the communities they want to represent, who aren't beholden to the party establishment or special interests. I've spent my entire life in the district, I know what people care about and how they are hurting, and I hope to be a voice for my community in the House of Representatives."
