Rhapsody In Blond by Nancy OhanianThe other day, someone pointed out that convicting an impeached president in the Senate doesn't actually take two-thirds of all 100 senators. It takes two-thirds of the Senators present. Trump is certainly going to be impeached by the House, where only a simple majority is required. As Pelosi said in a New Yorker interview, Trump has given the House no choice. "Just impeaching Trump for his bad behavior isn’t worth it. But, if he challenges our system of checks and balances as he is doing, if he undermines our democracy, our electoral system, as he is doing, if he undermines his own oath of office as he is doing, it is a challenge to our Constitution."Republican senators disgusted with Trump could simply stay away and... well, if 30 of them do, there will be 70 senators present. That means the Democrats could convict Trump with their 47 senators, although that pre-supposes that Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), Doug Jones (AL) and Joe Manchin (WV) can be persuaded to vote to convict. All three tend to vote with Trump nearly as much as Republicans do and all three voted to confirm William Barr attorney general, even though every other Democrat voted no.It's worth mentioning in passing at this point that in 2018 52,260,651 people voted for Democratic Senate candidates and only 34,723,013 voted for Republican candidates but the undemocratic nature of the Senate still yielded a majority for the GOP.Are there 30 Republicans who would stay away and watch Trump be convicted and removed from office? I don't think so-- not even close. And certainly not for all the reasons normal Americans want to see him removed from office. But this betrayal of the Kurds... that has flipped out a lot more Republicans and the rest of Trump's trampling of the Constitution.Lindsey Graham is the one yipping the loudest over the Kurds but he's adamantly opposed to impeachment. Who might help? Well, if the numbers are there and a few cowards can be persuaded to be part of it, this is a best case scenario:
• Mitt Romney (UT)• Susan Collins (ME)- up for reelection• Jerry Moran (KS)• Lisa Murkowski (AK)• Ben Sasse (NE)- up for reelection• Lamar Alexander (TN)- retiring• Pat Roberts (KS)- retiring• Thom Tillis (NC)- up for reelection• Richard Burr (NC)• Martha McSally (AZ)- up for reelection• Cory Gardner (CO)- up for reelection• Johnny Issakson (GA)- retiring• David Perdue (GA)- up for reelection• Chuck Grassley (IA)• Joni Ernst (IA)- up for reelection• Dan Sullivan (AK)- up for reelection• Roger Wicker (MS)
Would have to be extra-persuaded:
• Marco Rubio (FL)• Mike Lee (UT)• Steve Daines (MT)- up for reelection• Ted Cruz- (TX)• Todd Young (IN)• Roy Blunt (MO)• Josh Hawley (MO)• Pat Toomey (PA)• James Lankford (OK)• John Kennedy (LA)
That's 27-- in the absolute best case scenario and the ones in the second category would never be part of it unless they could be shown that there are 30 senators guaranteed including the 3 reluctant Democrats). So... no, Trump will have to be beaten at the ballot box. Is that going to happen? Most likely. As of the latest Tracking Trump state polls, his favorability is underwater in too many states he needs-- with downward momentum everywhere. This is how it looks now (with the number in parenthesis representing how much he's fallen since taking over):
• Vermont- minus 33 (down by 31)• Massachusetts- minus 31 (down by 27)• Washington- minus 29 (down by 30)• Hawaii- minus 29 (down by 17)• California- minus 28 (down by 22)• Maryland- minus 25 (down by 12)• Oregon- minus 24 (down by 26)• New York- minus 23 (down by 31)• Connecticut- minus 23 (down by 28)• New Hampshire- minus 23 (down by 23)• Illinois- minus 22 (down by 31)• Rhode Island- minus 19 (down by 16)• New Jersey- minus 17 (down by 19)• New Mexico- minus 16 (down by 32)• Colorado- minus 15 (down by 16)• Iowa- minus 14 (down by 22)• Maine- minus 13 (down by 21)• Delaware- minus 12 (down by 19)• Nevada- minus 12 (down by 21)• Minnesota- minus 11 (down by 14)• Wisconsin- minus 11 (down by 17)• Michigan- minus 10 (down by 18)• Pennsylvania- minus 8 (down by 17)• Virginia- minus 6 (down by 15)• Ohio- minus 5 (down by 19)• Arizona- minus 4 (down by 23)• North Carolina- minus 3 (down by 21)• Montana- minus 3 (down by 27)• Florida- minus 2 (down by 23)• Nebraska- minus 2 (down by 26)• Utah- minus 2 (down by 30)• Georgia- plus 1 (down by 17)• Alaska- plus 1 (down by 23)• Indiana- plus 2 (down by 20)• North Dakota- plus 1 (down by 22)• South Dakota- plus 1 (down by 20)• Texas- plus 2 (down by 18)• Arkansas- plus 4 (down by 26)• Kansas- plus 4 (down by 20)• Missouri- plus 5 (down by 14)• South Carolina- plus 7 (down by 18)• Oklahoma- plus 11 (down by 23)• Tennessee- plus 13 (down by 20)• Louisiana- plus 15 (down by 16)• Kentucky- plus 15 (down by 19)• Wyoming- plus 16 (down by 24)• Idaho- plus 20 (down by 9)• West Virginia- plus 20 (down by 18)• Mississippi- plus 21 (down by 13)• Alabama- plus 22 (down by 14)
The trend line looks unbelievably bad in every single state. I've never seen anything like it before.