South Carolina Blue Dog freshman Joe Cunningham chose to vote with the Republicans for his entire first term. Will any amount of money save him in an R+10 district?Last year, the pundits and Beltway prognosticators who take Nate Silver seriously did the same thing they're doing this year. They acknowledged that Democrats running for Congress were ahead and then proceeded to argue if the party would win 3-4 seats or manage to actually win 6 or 7. It was idiotic because by the time they were writing that, the Democrats were already up by two dozen and momentum against Trump and his enablers was building rapidly and irresistibly. But in DC they didn't recognize that until Silver (and Cook) told them it was OK to... a few days before the election, and still just tepidly at that. Ally Mutnick, a Politico writer fell into the same trap yesterday with her headline, Why Republicans should be worried about their chances of retaking the House.The Republicans should be worried alright-- but not about their inability to re-take the House. The battle is really over how many dozen seats they're going to lose next year. Oh, sure... there are a small number of accidental seats the Democrats may lose... deep in red territory, seats they should never have won and only won by accident: SC-01 (Joe Cunningham), NM-02 (Xochitl Torres Small) and OK-05 (Kendra Horn) being standouts. But who cares, all 3 are shit-eating cowardly Blue Dogs who vote with the Republicans and consistently drag the whole party conference rightward when it should be moving leftward. McAdams and Brindisi are two more, but neither is going to be defeated until 2022 (unless Bernie is elected, in which case 2022 will be another bofo year for Democrats and they'll all be safe for another cycle). Brindisi constantly whines that every time the Democrats want to do something-- like raise the minimum wage, for example-- he has a fit and screeches that they're going to cost him his reelection. Don't I wish! ProgressivePunch crucial vote scores for these 5 Blue Dogs I just mentioned:
• Anthony Brindisi (NY)- 20.0• Joe Cunningham (SC)- 20.0• Kendra Horn (OK)- 28.89• Ben McAdams (UT)- 31.11• Xochitl Torres Small (NM)- 40.0
Anyway, back to the actual Republicans (instead of the pretend Republicans). Mutnick wrote that "Democrats are building a financial bulwark around their House majority that’s going to be tough for Republicans to breach in 2020. Thirty-three of the 44 most vulnerable House Democrats have stashed an impressive $1 million or more in the bank well before the election year even begins. And their fundraising pace is not slowing down as they gear up to defend the chamber." We looked at the numbers Thursday morning. 36 freshman have over a million in their campaign accounts. Three who the Republicans are determined to defeat-- Josh Harder (CA), Katie Porter (CA) and, absurdly, AOC (NY) have around two million each. There are virtually NO Republicans who are coming near their Democratic opponents in fundraising, at least not yet. Take the 5 Blue Dog assholes I mentioned above. Brindisi's war-chest is bursting with $1,102,210 while his 3 GOP opponents are struggling to raise enough to rent office space. George Phillips has $61,326. Self-funder Stephen Cornwell has $65,943 and Franklin Sager spent the whole $3,527 he raised-- all but $100 of which came from his own pocket-- and has nothing at all. Cunningham is an even bigger target than Brindisi, but his 5 GOP opponents barely raised half of what he has combined! These numbers are totals raised as of September 30:
• Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog)- $1,770,525• Nancy Mace (R)- $487,199• Katherine Landing (R)- $352,833• Mike Covert (R)- $148,733• Chris Cox (R)- $89,735• Phil Norris (R)- $28)
The other biggest GOP target of the 2020 cycle, Kendra Horn, has a similar situation. She raised $1,477,040 and her 3 Republican opponents-- Terry Neese, Stephanie Bice and David Greene-- raised a combined $1,084,712-- which they are using up to fight each other. McAdams has 6 Republican opponents. McAdams raised $1,338,792 while the 6 Republicans combined have raised less than $800,000, half that all brought in by her most serious opponent, Dan Hemmert ($406,875). Xochitl Torres Small is another one the GOP hopes to pick off. She has 3 serious opponents-- but she's still way ahead of them:
• Xochitl Torres Small (Blue Dog)- $1,660,921• Claire Chase (R)- $510,790• Yvette Herrell (R)- $441,403• Chris Mathys (R)- $233,166
None of these 5 Democrats are political celebrities; none of them stand for anything or inspire anyone. They're just 5 hacks who want to build careers in Congress and maybe grow up to be rich lobbyists some day. They sit in the DCCC callcenter all day and dial for dollars, just like the DCCC tells them to. And it's paying off for them. How else could any of them possibly be reelected? An anti-red wave isn't enough in South Carolina, Oklahoma City or southern New Mexico and maybe not in the Salt Lake City 'burbs or upstate New York either. So they just raise money-- often from all the worst sources-- instead.
The GOP is struggling to adapt to a changing landscape; They can no longer dismiss the strong fundraising as an anomaly when it has remained steady throughout the first three quarters of 2019. And while operatives insist the disparity is not insurmountable, Democrats have undoubtedly amassed a head start in a battle that will be waged in suburban districts that lie in the most expensive media markets in the country.For comparison, only nine the 30 Republican incumbents who lost reelection last November had more than $1 million in the bank after the third quarter of 2017.Still, top Republican strategists remain undaunted, citing the potential for impeachment backlash to motivate voters and lessen the potency of their opponents’ cash advantage. They acknowledged the Democratic cash influx may continue but brushed aside concerns it would derail their shot at taking back the House.“Their base is fired up, and ActBlue has done a brilliant job. But I think we’re going to close that gap,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), a former National Republican Congressional Committee chairman. “People know it’s going to be a very consequential election so there’s going to be plenty of money moved behind our challengers.”Republican prospects now look brighter in places like Pennsylvania’s 7th District where Democratic Rep. Susan Wild has a wealthy challenger and less than $650,000 in the bank, and in California’s 21st District where Rep. TJ Cox was outraised in the third quarter by former GOP Rep. David Valadao, who is back for a rematch after losing narrowly last year.
Valadao: too lateCox's district has changed drastically in the last decade. The PVI is a nice healthy D+5. Obama won it but times he ran and even Hillary beat Trump there, albeit by just 3 points. Cox isn't a very good member or a good candidate, but unless a scandal-in-a-box the GOP is working hard to gin up about him takes hold-- it hasn't so far-- he'll win reelection just based on the national trend. Wild is even safer. Her district has a D+7 PVIs. It's not possible for a Republican to win in a district like blue unless then run to the left. Wild is a New Dem and a nothing backbencher who no one would miss but Obama won the district both times-- and by a lot-- and even as weak a candidate as Hillary managed to squeeze out a win. Last year, Wild beat the Republican in all 3 counties. She won the race convincingly, 140,813 (53.5%) to 114,437 (43.5%). Leigh performed as a D+12 county for her and Monroe was even better-- D+16. Her "weakest" part of the district, Northampton County was still performing as a D+7 electorate and is what most vulnerable Democrats could only wish for. And even if Dean Browning is a self-funder, Wild has $644,040 in her campaign account to Browning's $220,907 ($140,000 of which came out of his pocket), so this district looks safe for Wild this cycle.Mutnick acknowledged that there are "some warning signs for House Republicans. In several other swing seats, Democrats are gaining a financial edge that could become prohibitive." LOL-- nearly all of them. "Privately, some GOP operatives," she wrote, "concede it may not be worth the investment to go after certain freshmen with massive war chests who hold districts in pricey media markets where Trump is not popular." That's the buried key point of her piece.
Incumbents such as Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), who is sitting on $2 million in the Los Angeles media market, and Sean Casten (D-IL), who has $1.4 million at his disposal in the Chicago area, may become less appealing targets because of the cost of attacking them on the airwaves. Both have at least $1.2 million more on hand than their challengers."A lot of them are again building up such strong races that it's possible they won’t get a competitive candidate," said Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA), a leader of the New Democrat Coalition. "We can take them off the playing field."Republicans have been working quickly to launch WinRed, their online donor portal, which raised $30 million last quarter. But operatives admit it could take years or even cycles before it can match ActBlue, which funneled $297 million to Democratic candidates in the third quarter.Cash-flush bank accounts mean Democrats will have the resources to drive messaging on the impeachment inquiry, if needed. Republicans have signaled they plan to paint Democrats as obsessed with impeaching the president at the expense of scoring legislative wins for their constituents."The key thing is to make sure that the candidates are able to get their voices out, and voters can hear what our incumbents are saying and understand the work that they're doing on their communities' behalf," said Rep. Brad Schneider (D-IL), a chairman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Frontline" program for its most vulnerable members.In addition to protecting their new majority, Democrats are also building cash reserves to pad their seat count. Ten GOP incumbents were outraised by their Democratic challengers, including some of Democrats' 2020 offensive targets like GOP Reps. David Schweikert of Arizona, Vern Buchanan of Florida, Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington and Chip Roy of Texas, who faces 2014 gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis.Democratic candidates also have cash-on-hand advantages in competitive open-seat races in Texas, Iowa and Indiana. In the race for retiring Rep. Will Hurd's seat in West Texas, Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones raised $1 million last quarter. No Republican candidate cleared $200,000.Another wrinkle for Republicans: Some of their best pickup opportunities have messy and late primaries that could sap resources. A crowded GOP field in a coastal South Carolina coast that Trump carried by 13 points won't be winnowed until June. And in Oklahoma's 5th District, widely viewed as Democrats' most vulnerable seat, a nominee may not emerge until after the August runoff.But Republicans are confident Trump will be a boon on the ticket in the 31 Democratic-held seats he carried in 2016, and that Democrats' move toward impeachment will motivate the GOP base in a way that could be more effective than TV ads.
OK, there you go. Trump a boon? Democrats are actually Republicans think that way, that delusionally. That's the 5 districts I mentioned above but Trump is managing to turn Salt Lake area Republicans-- not to mention independents-- off so rapidly, that being against Trump will probably help McAdams win the seat... if he just had the brains to take advantage of that. I don't see any Trump-love outside of die-hard Republicans in Brindisi's district and, in the other 3... good riddance anyway. Other than that... Trump reverse coattails will be so powerful that even with the worst DCCC in history, the Democrats should be able to increase their majority in the House by a least 3 dozen... and in the Senate, win back the chamber solidly enough so that Vice President Warren's vote won't be needed.
