As I mentioned in the post Sunday about the special election in PA-12, Democrats don't win in R+17 districts-- not ever. How about a district where the PVI is R+12? That's very unlikely, but not quite as impossible. The Democrats serving in Congress today in the reddest districts are:
Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT) R+13Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN) R+12, which he's held since 1990 when it was not so prohibitively redJoe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC) R+10 seatKendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK) R+10
After that the big anti-Republican/anti-Trump wave swept some Dems into extremely tough districts with PVIs of R+5, 6 and 7... all considered almost impossible to win. There are two more congressional special elections coming up after the PA-12 seat on May 21... both in North Carolina, the 9th and the 3rd districts. The 9th is doable and the Democrat is has an even chance to win that R+8 seat! The other one, NC-03, that's the R+12 district I was referring to. Almost impossible, but not absolutely impossible. So far the DCCC is pretty much ignoring the district, just as they are PA-12.Walter Jones, a former Democrat and the most independent-minded Republican in Congress, died in February, meaning the seat is open. Obama lost the district both times he ran and Trump crushed Hillary there: 60.5% to 36.9%. Last cycle, the Democrats didn't run a candidate against Jones. There 2016 candidate, Ernest Reeves, took 32.6% of the vote to Jones' 67.4%. Jones never had less than 60% in any of his 11 re-election races.The district includes all or parts of 17 counties from the Virginia border and the Outer Banks to the Marine Corps Camp Lejeune and along the coast past Beaufort, New Bern and Jacksonville and inland to the suburbs around Greenville. The district is mostly rural and the biggest city is Jacksonville, with a population of about 72,000. Yesterday a Washington Post OpEd by Max Boot, excoriating the GOP-- My Former Party's Reaction To The Mueller Report Fills Me With Disgust-- isn't likely to make it into the information stream of many-- if any-- voters in NC-03. "Having declared the Republican Party to be morally bankrupt last month-- after 90 percent of GOP lawmakers voted to approve President Trump’s unconstitutional state of emergency-- I am not remotely surprised by the party’s dishonorable and dishonest reaction to special counsel Robert Mueller’s report," he wrote. "But I am nevertheless dismayed and disgusted that a once-great party-- to which I belonged for most of my life-- could become a handmaiden to foreign attacks on the United States and blatant lawbreaking by the president." No one in Currituck, Onslow, Carteret, Terrell, Craven, Pamlico or any of the other are going to see what Boot had to say. I have a feeling not many cable systems in the district carry MSNBC either; just a feeling.Crazy far right lunatic, Rep Michael Speciale, is obsessed with males' genitalsThe primary is a week from today. As best as I can tell there are 26 candidates-- 17 Republicans, 6 Democrats and a couple of Libertarians and a guy from the Constitution Party. The general election is scheduled for September 10. Of the 17 Republicans, 16 of them made it to a forum a week ago at Currituck County Middle School in Barco. Of the 16, they all pretty much agreed on everything, including a strong embrace of Trump-style xenophobia. They all want to waste tax payer money on a feudal wall, calling immigration a "crisis" or "national emergency." Right-wing state Rep. Greg Murphy, for example, said he has "empathy" for immigrants fleeing violence in their home countries, but claimed the border is "overrun" and that it's not America's "job to be the breadbasket for everyone." His somewhat less empathic colleague, state Rep. Michael Speciale claimed illegal immigrants are bringing drugs, crime, and disease, exactly what xenophobes and racists like Speciale said about the Germans, Irish, Italians, Poles, Greeks, Jews, Chinese, Japanese and everyone else who has come to this country-- and made it great-- in the last 2 centuries. One of the little Nazis, Celeste Cairns-- whose cousin is fascist congressman Lance Gooden from Texas-- called for ending the constitutional right of birthright citizenship, of course. Sorry... off topic (kind of). These are the Republican candidates:
• State Rep Greg Murphy, a penis doctor and the biggest money raiser in the field• State Rep Phil Shepard, a Baptist pastor.• State Rep Michael Speciale, very extreme and very obsessed with homosexuality• Lenoir County commissioner Eric Rouse, a proud gun nut/wing nut• Currituck County commissioner Mike Payment• Currituck County commissioner Paul Beaumont• Celeste Cairns, the Nazi with the Nazi cousin, a CPA who has been endorsed by Club for Growth• Francis De Luca, former president of the Civitas Institute• Jeff Moore, a former McCrory staffer, a current right-wing blogger and a religious nut• Michele Nix, a former vice-chair of the North Carolina GOP and a 100% Trump stooge• Joan Perry, an anti-Choice fanatic and crackpot• Phil Law, a frequent candidate, hoping to get lucky this time• Kevin Baiko, a random person• Graham Boyd, a random person• Gary Ceres, a random person• Chimer Davis Clark Jr., a random person• Don Cox, a random person
And these are the 6 Democrats participating in their party's primary"
• Richard "Otter" Bew, Recently retired Marine colonel• Gregory Humphrey, a random person• Isaiah "Ike" Johnson, retired marine• Dana Outlaw, Mayor of New Bern• Ernest Reeves, frequent candidate• Allen Thomas, former mayor of Greenville
Unquestionably, the dumbest person in the race-- so a likely frontrunner-- is the former party hack, Michele Nix. She says she'll stand up to socialism and she's pretending she's running against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This is her ad:If the world turns upside down, I suppose Bew could beat one of the more extreme Republicans, maybe Rouse or Nix. Thomas and Bew are outraising the other Democrats-- 255,390.10 for Thomas and $124,513.34 for Bew as of the most recent FEC April 10. On the Republican side, Greg Murphy has raised $317,994.00, Joan Perry has raised $154,345.00, Rouse raised $147,640.00, De Luca $119,410.89, Moore $104,781.40, Cairns $75,099.50, while Nix surprised everyone by only bringing in $48,203.50.Chris Hardee, the Democratic Party district chairman says "it's a moderate district where citizens want someone who'll fight for the region's military bases and agricultural economy. The special election raises the wild-card possibility that with the right general-election matchup or narrative a Democrat could pull an upset. This is our best chance-- and maybe our only chance for a while, if we don't win. If they did, it would be historical.How would you like this loud-mouthed piece of crap as a congressman-- let alone a neighbor?