VA-05

  A new PBS-NPR poll by Marist finds the Donald down by 10 points nationally-- 52% to 42%. Trump's overall disapproval number is a dismal 53%.

Virginia's 5th congressional district-- 21 counties plus the blue cities of Charlottesville and Danville-- has a PVI of R+6... a tough race for Democrats, but not impossible, especially not in an anti-red wave cycle. Trump won the district in 2016, 53.4% to 42.3%.

I'm sure by now everyone has seen Trumpanzee's scolding tweet aimed at Paul Ryan yesterday. "I guess we all know who Trump plans to blame for our losses next week," a top Republican House staffer told me minutes after the tweet. "This guy is so fucked up... He's like an albatross around our necks." But it's not just Trump-- well, it's mostly Trump.

This morning we took a look at the lay of the land nationally (and in two bellweather Midwestern states, Minnesota and Iowa). Unless they're the kind of worthless polls the NY Times is doing now, I prefer district polling to get a better idea of what's going to happen in November.

I was talking with a friend of mine, a top congressional staffer, the other day about a drunk congressman. He mentioned-- without judgment-- that it would be easier and far quicker to make a list of sober members of Congress than a list of the alcoholics serving in that branch.

Leslie Cockburn with husband AndrewVA-05 leans red. The PVI is R+6 and in recent presidential elections the district has been going to Republicans. McCain beat Obama 52.2% to 46.8%; Romney beat him 52.5% to 45.9% and then in 2016 Trump did better, beating Hillary 53.4% to 42.3%.

Virginia is one of the richest states, but much of that wealth is concentrated in the DC surbubs. The state's median income is $67,620, third highest nationally. The three districts that include parts of Fairfax County have median incomes in the $100,000 range. But in the southern part of the state, incomes dip precipitously.