Uncertainty

by Judith Curry
Yet not once has overconfidence by actual scientists been demonstrated. You just keep making that up. – Chris Colose

by Judith Curry
The impact of climate change looms large as a deep uncertainty with global consequences. – Khalra et al.

by Judith Curry  If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth?  Kerry Emanuel This post is motivated by an essay by Kerry Emanuel published at the Climate Change National Forum, entitled Tail Risk vs. Alarmism, which … Continue reading →

by Garth Paltridge There is more than enough uncertainty about the forecasting of climate to allow normal human beings to be at least reasonably hopeful that global warming might not be nearly as bad as is currently touted.  Climate scientists, … Continue reading →

by Judith Curry . . . this “crisp number” mode of thinking has promoted the use of over-simplistic models and masking of uncertainties that can in turn lead to incomplete understanding of problems and bad decisions. – Peter Taylor and … Continue reading →

by Judith Curry Some interesting discussion this past week on the topic of public engagement and communicating climate uncertainty. APPCCG Tamsin Edwards has a post entitled Nine Lessons and Carols in Communicating Climate Uncertainty, comprising  notes form the All Parliamentary Party … Continue reading →

by Judith Curry Failure to communicate the relevant ‘weak link’ is sometimes under-appreciated as a critical element of science-based policy-making. Lenny Smith and Arthur Petersen have written a very interesting and insightful paper Variations on Reliability: Connecting Climate Predictions to Climate Policy,  [link] to … Continue reading →

by Judith Curry In addition to traditional fallacies such as ad hominem, discussions of risk contain logical and argumentative fallacies that are specific to the subject-matter. Ten such fallacies are identified, that can commonly be found in public debates on risk. They … Continue reading →

by Judith Curry Two new papers that discuss uncertainty in surface temperature measurements. The issue of uncertainty in surface temperature measurements is getting some much needed attention, particularly in context of the HadCRUT datasets.  For context, some previous Climate Etc. … Continue reading →

by Judith Curry How believable are the IPCC’s continually increasing confidence levels? Disconcerting learning on climate sensitivity and the uncertain future of uncertainty Alexis Hannart, Michael Ghil, Jean-Louis Dufrwsne, Philippe Naveau Abstract How will our estimates of climate uncertainty evolve … Continue reading →