turn-out

by NoahRepublican voters are heading to the polls in record numbers to vote for the America they deisre. You?

You know what this baby Nazi grew up to be, right?I feel like a tape: Republicans generally vote for Republicans and Democrats generally vote for Republicans. That's why, in so many districts-- including ALL the battleground districts-- independents decide the outcome. And you know who independents do not like? Right-- Trump.

Laura Dawn, the founder and chief executive of Art Not War, sent me that great 60 second video above, featuring Aja Naomi King, star of How to Get Away With Murder to help spread the word about the midterms to young people (in the 18-29 year old bucket). These are people with very progressive views-- and a very low propensity to turn out to vote, especially in non-presidential elections.Another friend of mine, Richard Greene has the same idea, but with a completely different approach.

Trumpty Dumpty by Nancy OhanianOn Wednesday Axios posted a fascinating chart about the blue vs red primary surge in swing districts this cycle.

I don't know many people who like Pelosi any longer. It's hard to imagine she could win the Speakership again with so many Democrats pledging they will not vote for her The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that most voters are "sour"on her.

-by Tom SullivanOff-year mobilization is tough anytime. But while Democrats here in North Carolina still have a statewide registration edge, unaffiliated voter registration is spiking. Getting voters to turn out will be especially challenging in 2018 because there will be no national or statewide races in North Carolina. Neither U.S. Senate seat is on the ballot in 2018.

The GA-06 special election is June 20th-- three weeks from yesterday. And yesterday was the first day of early voting there. The ad up top was just put up on local TV to the tune of $500,000 by Pelosi's SuperPAC. Or more important, who is it speaking to? Who is it not saying a word to? Patrick Ruffini had an interesting post up yesterday at FiveThirtyEight: Black Voters Aren’t Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party.

Is this supposed to inspire the Democratic base to turn out?The recruitment theory at the DSCC and DCCC was grounded in a Hillary landslide. Piss-poor, unpopular candidates who Schumer and Tester spent millions of dollars to get the nomination-- particularly Patrick Murphy (FL), Katie McGinty (PA) and Ted Strickland (OH)-- crushing far better and more viable candidates in the process, could only possibly get through on Hillary's coattails in the anti-Trump tsunami that imagined was building. But the tsunami is nowhere in sight...

Primary voter turnout in doubly-contested years (source; click to enlarge).

OK, so this is the more involved second half of the post from 10 am-- slightly more abstract and something I'd suggest the Trumpf fans not bother trying to grapple with. We're going to do a little mashup of Aaron Zitner at the Wall Street Journal, Patrick Healy and Maggie Haberman at the NY Times and Sean McElwee at Salon.