Yesterday, a prominent Democratic campaign manager read the post about the Democratic win in Missouri Tuesday and said, relieved, "so I guess there's a wave coming after all." Only people in a state of delusion, I told him, think otherwise. That state legislative seat that flipped from red to blue, was a district that Trump won by around 28 points.
Might likely California Republican to lose his seat in NovemberAs we saw, the DCCC is re-running Jon Ossoff in the PA-18.
Alabama's 4th congressional district-- it's whitest and most Appalachian district-- seat of dull right-wing backbencher Robert Aderholt, is likely to disappear after the next census. It's easily the reddest and most politically and socially backward part of Alabama-- cutting clear across the state from Mississippi (east of Tupelo) to Georgia northwest of Rome.
The DCCC brain surgeons are starting to figure out that PVIs don't count as much in wave elections and that this cycle there really are no safe Republican seats. Any seat where the Democrats + independents make up 50% + one of potential voters, is up for grabs. People are pissed off-- pissed off about Trump, pissed off about Putin, pissed off about Ryan's Tax Scam, pissed off about how the Republicans treat women (and children), pissed off...
The other day, in talking about the immense value to Randy Bryce the Bernie Sanders endorsement was. I mentioned in passing how toxic most political endorsements are. No Democrats want endorsements from party leaders like Pelosi, Hoyer, Crowley or Wasserman Schultz. And in Republicanville, who would want an endorsement from, for example, Paul Ryan?
Republican politicians who are disgusted with Trump and want to distance themselves from him and from Bannon and from that whole neo-fascist wing of the party. Maybe be heartened to see Trump's favorability ratings continue to crater. But, unfortunately for them, what they're seeing, primarily, are independents being turned off to Trump, not Republicans. It's his party now and it will be so into the foreseeable future-- at least until 2020.
On Monday, Tony Fabrizio, the pollster for the Trump campaign, said he believes Bernie would have won against Trump. "I think Sanders would have had the ability to reach a lot of the less than college-educated, low-income white voters." The new survey PPP released yesterday found "a record level of support for impeaching Donald Trump"-- 49% in favor, 41% opposed. "Trump’s approval rating has declined by a net 7 points in the last month.
Trump's approval ratings might get better-- but that's unlikely. They just keep sinking... and they are, as Jonathan Bernstein explained for Bloomberg readers, really, really bad already. Señor Trumpanzee is, in short, being judged to be the worst president in modern history.
