By Nic Lewis
An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections.
AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations indicate that it would halve.
Introduction
By Nic Lewis
A critique of of a new paper by Andrews et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.
Plain language summary
by Judith Curry
We need to raise the bar on how we think about the possible worst case scenario for climate change.
The news and twitterati are abuzz with the idea of ‘Hothouse Earth’, based on a new paper published in PNAS [link]:
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
by Nic Lewis
We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“. The paper also addresses critiques of LC15.
by Nic Lewis
The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions.
by Nic Lewis
The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible.
by Nic Lewis
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: their nature and assessment of validity.
by Frank Bosse
A few days ago a paper (Sato et al) dealing with some aspects of the “Aerosol Cloud Interactions”, (ACI, also called “aerosol indirect effects”) was released. It bolsters the conclusions of earlier papers: the effective radiative forcing from ACI (ERFaci) is smaller than thought, perhaps near zero .
