Last cycle at this time, Cook refused to see an anti-red wave forming. So their forecasts were not just wrong; they were absurd and a complete joke. But many in the media see them as the political forecasting bible. Early in the 2018 cycle, Cook, graciously acknowledged that the Democrats might net a few seats but doubted they could get into the double digits, let alone win back the House.
Writing for the National Journal this morning, Charlie Cook predicted "net gains for Democrats in governorships of between six and a dozen, and a pickup for Democrats of between 400 and 650 state legislative seats, more than the average midterm loss of 375 seats for the party in the White House.
Mike Siegel's campaign got some good news and some... well, mixed news, today. The tweet below is the mixed news. Cook Report staffer Dave Wasserman, who gets incredibly more credit as a pundit than he comes close to deserving, mentioned that the very gerrymandered 10th district in Texas-- stretching from north Austin into the far suburbs west of Houston-- is an example of a district that could flip but is also an example of DCCC recruitment failure. The DCCC should be recruiting more top notch candidates like Siegel, not fewer.
Never afraid to tell the voters what he plans to doOver the weekend, Politico released a new poll of registered voters from Morning Consult. A couple of points:41% approve of Trump (22% strongly) and 54% disapprove (42% strongly).
After college, I spent a couple years on the "Hippie Trail," the overland route from London to New Delhi and Kathmandu. There were places, primarily in western Turkey and eastern Iran where the idea of "road" was theoretical. But overall, a few hundred of us made it through every year from the late '50s into the mid '70s.
David Wasserman and the Cook Report don’t go out on any limbs… and they’re usually at least a month behind in their reporting. So… when They call a district lean Democrat, in the real world, you can mark it top as Solid, solid, solid Democrat times 10. On Friday Wasserman jiggered 13 seats, all in a blue direction. He was leaning heavily on this:
When I talk about Beltway pundits and prognosticators being "conservative," I don't mean they're Republicans or Blue Dogs or partisan at all. It's more like dressing the way people dressed in the '50s-- although it's not that either. It's being overly cautious and always being a follower instead of a leader. I used to say that the only time the Cook Report was worth reading was on the day after election day. That was unkind and an exaggeration.
I'd love to know who hired PPP to poll the dozen House districts they polled this week. Notice that in some districts they polled the incumbent Republican against some crap Republican-lite conservaDem the DCCC is pushing-- Ann Kirkpatrick, Jason Crow, Angie Craig, Chrissy Houlahan-- even though there are competitive progressives in the races.
