Cook Report

Cook is usually a lagging indicator. They do not move on a dime. If they move a race from "leans Republican" to "toss up," it probably means you should expect a big loss for the GOP.

Let me have a little LOL moment. On May 1, I wrote that "2020 will be another big anti-red wave. The media isn't talking about it yet-- they're a lagging indicator-- but they will." Sabato's Crystal Ball had just explained why they were still betting on the Montana Senate seat to stay red. "Gov.

Remember a couple of weeks ago when I was making fun of the professional prognosticators for rating Montana's Senate race a "lean Republican?" I predicted they would all be backing away from that foolishness by summer.

Totally In Control by Nancy OhanianThursday, a new Gallup poll showed Trump's pandemic job approval collapsing-- down 6 points in a month.

Collin Peterson: DRECK!Minnesota's 7th district is as red as it gets. The PVI is R+12 and Obama lost it both times he ran. Trump beat Hillary here-- 62 to 31%. It's about 95% of western Minnesota and borders on North and South Dakota. Folks there gave uo on the corrupted DC corporate Democrats long ago. In the 2016 primary, folks there went crazy for Bernie's populist, progressive reform message.

The new Economist/YouGov poll, released yesterday, has more bad news for the GOP. Favorability for congressional Democrats (37%) is 8 points higher than favorability for congressional Republicans (29%).

Charlie Cook, an avatar of centrism, asked yesterday if Democrats can grab the center now that Trump alienated it from the Republicans. As he says, the electorate is made up of two sides and a big mushy middle. Sometimes it's a third, a third and a third.

Not likely to vote Republican this cycleI don't usually turn to Charlie Cook for words of wisdom, but after the sheer nonsense I read the other day from Jeremy Peters at the New York Times-- Republicans’ Messaging on Abortion Puts Democrats on the Defensive, any palliative will do.

A few days ago, the Cook Report published a piece by Amy Walter about the 2020 prospects of a Blue Wall, basically that "the 'easiest' or least risky electoral path for the Democratic nominee in 2020 is to reconstruct the so-called 'Blue Wall' in the industrial midwest. If the Democratic nominee wins every state Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, plus Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, that Democrat would win 278 electoral votes-- eight more than the 270 needed to win.

Monday, the Cook Report listed 50 interesting facts about last month's midterm elections.