Let's start with Nebraska, where conservative Republican Ben Sasse began his reelection bid yesterday. He was first elected in 2014 against Democrat David Domina, 64.4% to 31.5%. 347,636 Nebraskans voted for him. Sasse was the first sitting senator to announce he wouldn't support Trump if Trump won the Republican nomination in 2016.
There's been a lot of silly talk by click-hungry pundits about how there's no blue wave coming. Unless, they're smart enough-- and they're not-- to be explain that there's no blue wave because it's actually an "anti-red wave," just ignore them and they'll slither back under their rocks. Ask a Republican incumbent if they feel a wave coming.
By the numbers, the craftily-gerrymandered first congressional district of Ohio looks nearly impossible for a Democrat. It includes most of Cincinnati-- Lyle Park and Prospect Hill but not Mount Adams-- but not all of it (which would turn it blue) and enough of Warren County to guarantee Republican majorities. Since the district was redrawn-- after Obama’s 55-44% win against McCain-- Romney won it with 52% and Trump won it 51-45%.
Few of the growing number of Republicans opposing Trumpf say their opposition is rooted in what's good for the country. It's about what's good for the fucked-up political party they share with him-- albeit uneasily-- that spawned him in the first place. I don't recall ever seeing so many elected officials from a party saying they will not support a candidate if he's their party's official nominee.
This month I've been talking with Fred Kundrata, the Democratic candidate running for the Cincinnati-based seat that Steve Chabot lost in 2008 to Steve Driehaus, who ran as a progressive, and then regained 2 years later after Driehaus had amassed a conservative record at the behest of the DCCC. OH-01 was gerrymandered in 2010 to make the district much less hospitable to Democrats.
