Asian-Pacific region

In recent years, Australia has established increasingly close economic relations with China yet, at the same time, it relies on a strategic alliance with the United States being the guarantor of its defense capability. But Australia’s growing dependence on trade with China is having an increasing impact on foreign policy. Canberra is finding it difficult to maintain a balance between its leading trading partner, China, and its major ally, the United States, at the same time.

The nature of Australia’s trading relationship with the rest of the world has changed dramatically in the 75 years since the end of World War II. In 1945–46 the total value of Australia’s exports of goods and services was $19 billion. It remained relatively low for the next 25 years, passing $50 billion only in 1969-70. It took a further 15 years to double, passing the $100 billion mark in 1984–85. It doubled again to $200 billion in 2000-01, and more than doubled again to $473.7 billion in 2019.

Upon reading Australia’s new defense strategy, one might think its authors believe they are surrounded by nations invaded and destroyed by China with Australia next in line.

On July 10, a number of news agencies reported that India’s leadership is considering inviting Australia to participate in the international naval exercise Malabar, scheduled later this year. The report is noteworthy for a number of reasons, mainly from the perspective of assessing the state of affairs in the Indo-Pacific region. The changes that have taken place in this region are directly linked to the history of the Malabar exercises.

In a major speech delivered in Canberra on June 30, Prime Minister of Australia Scott Morrison announced plans to overhaul “Australia’s defense strategy and force structure” as envisioned by the Department of Defense in 2020 Defense Strategic Update and 2020 Force Structure Plan. Such documents are updated every few years in response to changes in the environment within and outside the country, as the strategy needs to be amended accordingly.

One of the great geopolitical fallacies common throughout much of the western world is the belief that circumstances as they are now are as they have always been and how they will continue to remain. Any student of history (and they are a dwindling band because of modern curriculum emphasis on relevance knows that the one certainty in geopolitical life is continuing uncertainty and inevitable change.