Asian-Pacific region

Several important events have occurred in Southeast Asia very recently, which shed a new light on the evolution and the current state of the conflict between China and the USA.

New Caledonia is one of the last territories in the Pacific region to remain in France’s possession after decolonization. Over the last decades, the mood for secession has been strong in New Caledonia, and its independence movement has seen some success. The French government is trying to hang onto New Caledonia, but this task seems extremely complex, and few are willing to predict how long this territory will remain French.

The decision by US President Donald Trump to withdraw US troops from Syria clearly caught Australian political, military and intelligence leaders by surprise. Despite claims of former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull that Australia and the US were “joined at the hip” the link is clearly metaphorical and does not extend to actual consultation.

When the current Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison floated the idea that Australia might move its Israeli embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, it was widely suggested that this was an attempt to curry favour with the relatively large (12%) Jewish population in the electorate where a by-election was being held.

On a very relative scale, Australia can be grouped into the ‘second or third’ level players in terms of significance in the political game unfolding in the Indo-Pacific region. This group could also include Pakistan, Iran, and South Korea. And the main players are undoubtedly the United States and China.

On 6 July the Associated Press (AP) Agency referred to official information sources from Australia and New Zealand in its announcement stating that during the upcoming Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in September of this year, representatives from Australia and New Zealand are set to sign a new security agreement with other PIF members, with the agreement factoring in China’s increasing influence in the region.

A recently released report of the UK Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament under the chairmanship of conservative MP Dominic Grieve QC has received remarkably little media coverage in Australia.  There are a number of reasons to be concerned about the information contained within the report, not least because it raises serious questions about the level of Australian complicity in the behaviour described in the report.

In 2005 Japan raised the possibility of a separate grouping of four nations, Australia, India, Japan and the United States, as a potential counterweight to the growing power of China. It was an ill-considered notion then, and nothing has happened since then to make it a better idea. If anything, it is a worse idea now that was 12 years ago.