No matter what the result of the impeachment battle is, next year, Republicans and Democrats are going to do what Republicans and Democrats do-- Republicans voters are going to vote for Republican candidates and Democrats are going to vote for Democratic candidates. In states with overwhelming numbers of Republican voters or Democratic voters, we already know the results of the elections. Take Wyoming, a state with an R+25 PVI, the reddest state in the country. Democrats don't get elected there without some kind of politically seismic event. There are 263,337 registered voters. This is how they identified themselves:
• Republicans: 176,307 (66.95%)• Democrats: 46,979 (17.84%)• Unaffiliated: 36,688 (13.93%)
There is no incentive for Wyoming Republicans to move away from a base strategy. They don't need independent voters-- let along Democratic voters. That's how we wind up with extremists like Liz Cheney (who represents an at-large district, same as a senator).Among the states where voters register by party-- and many don't-- these are the ones with the huge independent voters that swing and determine elections:
• AlaskaIndependents- 55.25%Republicans- 25.77%Democrats- 13.82%• Massachusetts
Independents- 54.05%Democrats- 34.03%Republicans- 10.68%• Rhode Island
Independents- 48.4%Democrats- 39.4%Republicans- 11.8%• New Hampshire
Independents- 41.55%Republicans- 30.62%Democrats- 27.81%• Connecticut
Independents- 41.26%Democrats- 36.60%Republicans- 20.76%• New Jersey
Independents- 40.99%Democrats- 36.87%Republicans- 21.47%• Colorado
Independents- 38.36%Democrats- 30.25%Republicans- 29.49%• Iowa
Independents- 36.05%Republicans- 31.90%Democrats- 31.33%• Maine
Independents- 34.95%Democrats- 32.97%Republicans- 27.37%
So that makes 4 red hot Senate races that will be determined by independent voters next year: Colorado (Gardner), Maine (Collins), Iowa (Ernst) and Alaska (Sullivan). If the Democratic candidates in these 4 states are successful in tying the Republican incumbents to Trump, they should each win, flipping the Senate and banishing Moscow Mitch from the chamber's leadership role.