by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week.
QBO primer [link]
Periodicity disruption of a model quasibiennial oscillation of equatorial winds https://journals.aps.org/prl/accepted/2d072Y42Lef16d5ef7d47192a2a4f7c1d27a126c5 …
Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models [link]
Combined effect of the quasi-biennial oscillation and ENSO on the MJO [link]
The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM): the main progress from CMIP5 to CMIP6: quasi-biennial oscillation reproduced for first time in this model. https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/1573/2019/
Quasi-biennial Oscillation reproduced in the INMCM5 climate model [link]
The folks at @NASAGISS just published a substantially improved (?) estimate of the uncertainties in their historical temperature record: https://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2019/05/23/new-studies-increase-confidence-in-nasas-measure-of-earths-temperature/ …
«The mid-latitudes are one big, chaotic mess». The DYNAMITE project is seeking order in this atmospheric chaos – to see if mid-latitude storm-tracks and weather are influenced by phenomena in other regions: https://www.bjerknes.uib.no/en/article/seeking-order-chaos …
A study of links between the Arctic and the midlatitude jet stream using Granger and Pearl causality https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/env.2540#.XOa57xZH3MU.twitter …
Scientists discover China has been secretly emitting banned ozone-depleting gas [link]
John Christy: Climate Models Have Been Predicting Too Much Warming https://mailchi.mp/6cd6282382fc/press-releaseclimate-models-have-been-predicting-too-much-warming-174401 …
Non-uniform contribution of internal variability to recent Arctic sea ice loss: Journal of Climate: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0864.1?
Contrasting effects on deep convective clouds by different types of aerosols [link]
Limited capacity of tree growth to mitigate the global greenhouse effect under predicted warming [link]
Ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise from structured expert judgment [link]
Comparison of Effective Radiative Forcing Calculations Using Multiple Methods, Drivers, and Models https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD030188#.XOQ5r7nFTRg.twitter …
Evolution of mean, variance and extremes in 21st century temperatures [link]
AMOC sensitivity to surface buoyancy fluxes explaining differing response of AMOC to heat loss in winter and summer, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-019-04802-4 …
Thirty years of regional climate modeling: Where are we and where are we going next? (open access) https://buff.ly/2EjxhRG
Observation and attribution of temperature trends near the stratopause from HALOE https://buff.ly/2WktzBP
Reduction in northern mid-latitude 2-m temperature variability due to Arctic sea ice loss https://buff.ly/2LREsa5
“Impact of North Atlantic Freshwater Forcing on Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation under Glacial and Interglacial Conditions” https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0065.1 …
Accumulation of soil carbon under elevated CO2 unaffected by warming and drought https://buff.ly/2VMoMcy
La Nina effects on droughts can be traced back to the U.S. Civil War [link]
An update on the thermosteric sea level rise commitment to global warming (open access) https://buff.ly/30rNePq
Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice https://buff.ly/2EhqJmH
Rainfall in Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne back to 1839! https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209471930009X …
The vital, life-sustaining Asian Monsoon is weakening due to air pollution from coal-fired power plants, study finds. It’s essentially one form of air pollution overpowering another. [link]
climate impacts of the #Laki1783 volcanic eruption. https://phys.org/news/2019-05-iceland-volcano-eruption-spawn.html …
Glacial cycles simulation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with PISM – Part 1: Boundary conditions and climatic forcing https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-71 …
Scientists made ‘major overestimations’ of methane emissions from oil and gas production in the United States by relying on faulty measurements, according to new research sponsored by NOAA.” [link]
Assessing dynamic versus thermodynamic origin of climate model biases. Thermodynamics more relevant for temperature & precipitation biases in CESM model, especially for #extremes. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL079220#.XN1pzB7MFnw.twitter …
The sun is stranger than astrophysicists imagined [link]
‘Extraordinary thinning’ of ice sheets revealed deep inside Antarctica [link]
Controls on the transport of meltwater from the southern Greenland ice sheet in the Labrador Sea https://buff.ly/2Vupre0
Different effects of two ENSO types on Arctic surface temperature in boreal winter https://buff.ly/2E8ofXO
Two Decades of Change at Pine Island Glacier https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145032/two-decades-of-change-at-pine-island-glacier …
Long‐term measurements show little evidence for large increases in total U.S. methane emissions over the past decade https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL081731 …
Historical extreme rainfall events in southeastern Australia (open access) https://buff.ly/2WCu3zT
Shifting spatial and temporal patterns in the onset of seasonally snow-dominated conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, 1972 – 2017 https://buff.ly/2JBtzXg
Update of Canadian Historical Snow Survey Data and Analysis of Snow Water Equivalent Trends, 1967–2016 [link]
Is the noble gas‐based rate of ocean warming during the Younger Dryas overestimated? https://buff.ly/2HfsiSK
Social science, technology and policy
Robert Stavins: Learning from thirty years of cap and trade [link]
Pushing small green initiatives “decreases support for substantive policies by providing false hope that problems can be tackled without imposing considerable costs” [link]
A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation. [link]
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is quietly, profoundly shaping U.S. climate policy [link]
Germany’s dangerously flawed energy policies [link]
Xcel Energy Acknowledges that Natural Gas is Vital for Future Energy Economy – “The grid can’t be 100% renewable.” https://www.energyindepth.org/xcel-energy-acknowledges-that-natural-gas-is-vital-for-future-energy-economy/ …
Food waste is now powering British trucks [link]
Turning agricultural waste into food, packaging and more [link]
A new paper in @NatureClimate looks at ways to cut the #carbon footprint of #plastics. [link]
Why carbon credits for forest preservation may be worse than nothing [link]
On the financial viability of negative emissions [link]
Concern for climate change is rising, but that doesn’t necessarily equate to action. Just ask someone worried about eating right and exercising enough — but who doesn’t actually make it to the gym or opt for salad over fries. http://axios.link/5TF8
Electric vehicles are an important tool in decarbonizing transportation. However, despite the lack of tailpipes they are still far from zero-emissions. I dig into the details of the climate benefits and impacts of electric vehicles at Carbon Brief: https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-climate-change …
AMOC decline is accompanied by enhanced #sealevelrise along the US northeast coast. Piecuch et al. on the role of atmospheric forcing in driving that relationship. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083073#.XNlcXFJ0A14.twitter …
Green New Deal for farming: Address climate crisis and revitalize food system [link]
About science and scientists
Supreme Court being asked to weigh in on the Mann versus CEI libel/freedom of speech case [link]
Free university tuition – a cautionary note from Germany [link]
RIP for another giant in our field. Norman Phillips, former meteorology department head, dies at 95 | MIT News [link]
RIP Murray Gell-Mann [link] to his TED talk
It’s cut throat: half of UK academics stressed and 40% thinking of leaving academia [link]
The peculiar blindness of experts: The best forecasters view their ideas as hypotheses in need of testing. If they make a bet & lose, they embrace the logic of a loss just as they would the reinforcement of a win. This is called, in a word, learning.” [link]
“People are rewarded for being productive rather than right, for building ever upward instead of checking the foundations. These incentives allow weak studies to be published. And once enough have amassed, they create a collective perception of strength…” [link]
“Classical education involves the acquisition of culturally & scientifically useful knowledge, & fostering an ability to think critically to further understanding. Modern education, on the other hand, is accreditation by an officially sanctioned seminary.” [link]
Scientists like to think of science as self-correcting. To an alarming degree, its not. [link]