Much of the hawkish commentary on Syria has centered around this notion that inaction led the al-Qaeda elements in the rebel opposition to metastasize. If only we had intervened early on, before the deepening of the civil war and all the blood-letting, we could have empowered the democratic elements of the early protest movement, they argue.
Obama meets with Bahrain King Hamad Bin Isa al-Khalifa
This argument is wrong, as I’ve written here on this blog since 2011. The reverse is actually more accurate. Early meddling and support of rebel militias on the part of the U.S. and its allies in the Arab Gulf states is what helped the radical elements to prevail and eventually overwhelm the whole rebel opposition.
Leaving aside the inaccuracy for a moment, I’m wondering why interventionists don’t apply this same logic to Bahrain. Largely peaceful democratic protests erupted in Bahrain in 2011 and it was mercilessly crushed. Ever since then, the Sunni monarch in Bahrain has employed a mix of systematic repression (including indefinite detention, torture, strict limits on speech, etc.) and cosmetic political reforms to manage the domestic unrest and prevent the situation from getting to the point of mass killings and civil war. So for more than three years now, the brutally subjugated Shia majority has been left to fester and struggle to maintain a commitment to non-violence in the hopes of substantive change to the authoritarian system under which they live.
It’s worth noting the primary reasons change has not been forthcoming: both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia support the Bahraini dictatorship unswervingly. This has added to the frustration among the Shia opposition. Frederic Wehrey, writing at The National Interest, points to some worrying signs that some in the predominantly peaceful opposition have taken to violence:
A militant strand of the Shia opposition led by the February 14 Youth Coalition and the Ashtar Brigades is becoming bolder and more brazen in its attacks against regime security forces. It is not surprising that new, more sophisticated improvised explosive devices have become the currency of this radical strain, And perhaps most worrisome for the U.S., they are growing increasingly hostile to the presence of the Fifth Fleet, which they believe is colluding in the ongoing repression. Angry young men have marched on the Fifth Fleet housing area of Juffeir, burning U.S. flags. Swathes of the capital are now no-go zones for U.S. personnel.
Interventionist can’t imagine applying the same logic to Syria that they do to Bahrain. Assad is a brutal dictator; the Al Khalifa regime in Bahrain is a reliable ally that must be supported at all costs, even if it means crushing a pro-democracy movement.
The status quo in Bahrain is that the regime uses low-intensity violence and coercion to contain a peaceful pro-democracy movement fighting for basic human rights. The lack of change, which is largely thanks to U.S. support of the regime, could lead to a very different dynamic in the near future.
And then what?