special elections

Florida's 15th congressional district-- the heart of Florida-- connects the Tampa Metro to the Orlando Metro, hitting the suburbs of both while being primarily agricultural. The two biggest population centers are Lakeland and Brandon... and neither is all that big.The district is marginally red-- with an R+6 PVI. Obama lost both times he ran and Trump beat Hillary by 10 points-- 53.1% to 43.1%. It used to be Adm Putnam's district but Dennis Ross won it when Putnam went on to be state Agriculture Commissioner.

There was no primary or special election in North Carolina yesterday and the Democratic candidate, Dan McCready, is a Blue Dog who will be voting frequently with the GOP when he gets into Congress-- Blue Dogs always do. But with the existential danger of Trump hanging over us, with have to hold our noses and hope congressional candidates like McCready win. And in this case, we probably don't have to hope too hard, because he's very likely to win.

I'm sure you remember all the excitement around the elections for the Virginia House of Delegates last year. The Republicans lost a whopping 15 seats and barely held onto the leadership-- and only because of a coin toss that went in their favor! The GOP entered those elections with 66 seats (out of 100) and had no idea what was headed their way. By the time the coin toss was over, they had 51 seats.

Last night, when everyone was wondering if Democrats would be shut out of the Orange County races in California-- they weren't-- and while political junkies were watching congressional races in California, New Jersey, Iowa, New Mexico, South Dakota, Alabama, Mississippi and Montana, a more definitive race than a primary was happening in Missouri's 17th state senate district in the Kansas City Metro.

Trying to out wing nut each other in a moderate districtOn Saturday we took a look at one of the districts Republicans in the Ohio legislature has effectively gerrymandered to protect their own party, OH-12.

OH-12 should be a competitive district. But the Republican-controlled legislature gerrymandered it in such a way as to make it safe for Republicans. Pat Tiberi, first elected in 2000, has never had a competitive race, not just because the Ohio Democratic Party died some years ago, but because Democrats knew the boundaries made running there a waste of time. A Republican has held the congressional seat since 1983.

Trump beat Hillary in Mississippi 700,714 (57.9%) to 485,131 (40.1%). Basically, Hillary won the black belt counties in the western part of the state and Trump won the rest. She won Bennie Thompson's congressional district 64-35% and Trump won the 3 other congressional districts by around the same number, reversed. The statewide PVI is R+9 so those numbers were predictable.

After he was caught in a sex-and-payoff scandal, Blake Farenthold intended to serve out his term and not run for reelection. Instead he was forced to resign from Congress in disgrace.TX-27 s a very gerrymandered district that took a Hispanic-based Democratic district and made it Republican. In 2004, TX-27 was 68.1% Hispanic and the only congressman it had ever known was Democrat Solomon Ortiz.

Saturday Max Boot played Captain Obvious in a Washington Post OpEd, Trump is drowning in scandal. He can’t focus on Syria. Is that lucky for us? For the Syrians? Like many of us, the bombing raid on Syria is seen strictly as a Wag The Dog moment the regime decided toes if they could pull off.

On Monday we looked at a new poll from Reuters showing that white educated voters who went for Trump in 2016 are less favorable towards him now and plan to take it out on Republican congressional candidates in November.