The Naked Emperor flags a recent Twitter spat between statistician Nate Silver and psychologist Sander van der Linden, over the merits of countering misinformation by exposing people to fake news in controlled doses.
The post Nate Silver Vs Professor Van Der Linden appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.
How do we know that anything we see portrayed as “news” is actually true? Think about it. There are two videos you are about to see. One is graphic, and YouTube will ask you if you are sure you want to see it. This is because this video clip shows the moment Ashli Babbitt, a […]
Devolution of the Star ChildDemocrats winning the House means there will be an effective check on Trump's worst authoritarian tendencies. It also kills the Republican Party's ambitions to repeal the Affordable Care Act and further eviscerate the social safety net. So how many seats did the Democrats pick up? We don't know yet because so many seats-- and not just in California-- are still uncalled.
The more people who remember this on election day-- or understand it-- the betterNate Silver at FiveThirtyEight looks at the numbers and senses that a wave may be headed this way.
A great night for progressives and reformers Yesterday Nate Silver said that "In races where insurgent, progressive Democrats are running against party-backed nominees ... the establishment Democrat is winning 89% of the time." If not so sure about definitions that make that even remotely true. And it certainly wasn't true last night. I'll give you two examples.
I've never been a big fan of Nate Silver's or his brand of research. But sometimes-- like this time-- he hits the nail right on the head. His point last week is that conventional wisdom about the solidity of Trump's core support is incorrect and that Trump's base is already looking shaky and starting to shrink.
Elizabeth talking about the Inside Game (start at 14:30), and playing it quite well as well. As you watch, look for the layers; notice what she's doing (at 20:50 for example) from her own insider position.by Gaius PubliusIt's conventional wisdom at this point that Sanders has the "white liberal" vote in his pocket, or at least the subset of "liberals" who are in the so-called Warren wing of the party.
The Sanders surge is about Sanders, not Clinton. Click to enlarge.by Gaius PubliusWe know that Sanders is gaining in many polls, and that some are attributing his rise to a growing "anyone but Clinton" mood among Democrats. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com disagrees.Data first, via Silver:
Is the tragedy of Ferguson serving as a national teaching moment? Maybe… at least for people open to learning. Nate Silver made a point the other day, for example, of how most police don't live in the cities they serve-- especially not white police serving in minority areas. In Ferguson, for example, "more than two-thirds of the civilian population is black.
