This morning we took a look at the lay of the land nationally (and in two bellweather Midwestern states, Minnesota and Iowa). Unless they're the kind of worthless polls the NY Times is doing now, I prefer district polling to get a better idea of what's going to happen in November.
CA-10 is Jeff Denham's Central Valley district that should have been won by the Democrats by now. It's a white minority district (46%) that stretches from Tracy, Manteca, Ripon and Riverbank in the north down through Modesto and Patterson to Turlock. Obama won it both times and in 2016 Hillary beat Trump 48.5% to 45.5%. The PVI went from R1 to EVEN.
We haven't spent enough time talking about CA-10, an important district that the DCCC has failed over and over again to rescue from Republican hands. A Central Valley district primarily in Stanislaus County, with a substantial part of San Joaquin as well, the district is represented by a knee-jerk Republican backbencher, Jeff Denham, an odd fit in a minority majority district. CA-10, just east of San Jose, gave Obama wins both times he ran and, albeit by a smaller margin, went for Hillary over Trump last year, 48.5% to 45.5%.
A staffer at the DCCC called me the other day out of the blue-- me... who usually has some pretty unkind words for the committee-- and asked me if I knew anyone who wanted to run against Jeff Denham in CA-10, a district at the northern end of the Central Valley that includes Modesto, Turlock, Manteca, Ripon and Tracy. It's a nice blue district east of San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose. Obama beat McCain there 50-48% and beat Romney 51-47%. Even Hillary won, albeit without a majority: 48.5% to 45.5%.
Anger at the DCCC is spreading. Well, anger at the DCCC has been huge for over a decade; that it's being talked about more openly and more aggressively at the grassroots level is what's different. Chris Van Hollen and Steve Israel lost dozens and dozens of Democratic House seats (incumbents) and ruined the chances of even more Democratic challengers trying to beat Republicans.
Jeff Denham wants to cut Medicare-- but he doesn't want the voters to know thatA friend of mine, Michael Stewart Foley, had an interesting way to start the introduction to his newest book, The Rise Of Front Porch Politics In America. It sounds like he's talking about a bumper sticker, but what he's really talking about is how politicians do everything than can to hide the simple facts from the voters.
Ever been to Turlock, Jeff Denham's hometownTuesday the Blue America accountability truck rolled into Modesto, the big city in Jeff Denham's Central Valley district (CA-10). Denham is one of the most vulnerable congressional Republicans, not just in California, but anywhere in the country-- and Modesto is the biggest city in the district. Obama won Modesto both times he ran. In fact, Obama won CA-10 both times, holding McCain to 48% in 2008 and Romney to 47% four years later.
