by Nic Lewis Why matching of CMIP5 model-simulated to observed warming does not indicate model skill A well-known Dutch journalist, Maarten Keulemans of De Volkskrant, recently tweeted an open letter to the Nobel-prizewinning physicist Professor Clauser in response to his … Continue reading →
by Nic Lewis This week Die Zeit published an interview with Bjorn Stevens. Die Zeit is the largest German weekly newspaper (circulation well over one million), and has a highly educated readership. Bjorn Stevens is Director at the Max … Continue reading →
by Nic Lewis Official estimates of future global warming may be overstated. A brief summary in press release style of my new paper (written in the third person) One of the most important conclusions of the recent 6th Assessment Report … Continue reading →
A guest post by Nic Lewis
Judith Curry and I have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate
A guest post by Nic Lewis
A guest post by Nic Lewis
There have been quite a number of papers published in recent years concerning “emergent constraints” on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in comprehensive global climate models (GCMs), of both the current (CMIP5) and previous (CMIP3) generations. The range of ECS values in GCMs has remained almost unchanged since the early days of climate modelling; in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) it was given as 2.1-4.7°C for CMIP5 models.[i]
A guest post by Nic Lewis
Introduction and summary
Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt (the head of NASA GISS) and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1] It appears to me that the novel part of its analysis is faulty, and that the part which isn’t faulty isn’t novel.
