by Ross McKitrick
A number of authors, including the IPCC, have argued that climate models have systematically overstated the rate of global warming in recent decades. A recent paper by Millar et al. (2017) presented the same finding in a diagram of temperature change versus cumulative carbon emissions since 1870.
by Nic Lewis
[W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.
by Judith Curry
I have been asked to write an Expert Report on climate models.
***SEE UPDATE
by Judith Curry
Paul Voosen has written a remarkable article in Science about climate model tuning.
Background
In November 2009 following ClimateGate, I made a public plea for greater transparency in an essay published at ClimateAudit: On the credibility of climate research.
When I started blogging at Climate Etc. in 2010, a major theme was a call for formal Verification and Validation of climate models:
by Tomas Milanovic
There are few scientific concepts that are more often misunderstood in blog debates than Determinism and Predictability. For many commenters, these two concepts are considered to be in fact equivalent, which leads to faulty or irrelevant arguments.
by Judith Curry
This post is about the practical aspects of generating regional scenarios of climate variability and change for the 21st century.
by Dan Hughes
We frequently see the simple statement, “The Laws of Physics”, invoked as the canonical summary of the status of the theoretical basis of GCMs.
by Judith Curry
The economic models that are used to inform climate policy currently contain an unhealthy dose of wishful thinking. Technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the air are assumed in the models that avoid dangerous climate change – but such technologies do not yet exist and it is unclear whether they could be deployed at a meaningful scale. – Tim Kruger
by Judith Curry
We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. – Hourdin et al.
