CA-10

L.A. Times this morning: "Republicans are at risk of a wipeout in California’s six most hotly contested congressional races, a new poll shows-- a result that could radically reshape the state’s political map, with major consequences nationally... The Democratic tide threatens to swamp congressional districts in Southern California’s suburbs that Republicans have controlled for decades.

CA-10 is Jeff Denham's Central Valley district that should have been won by the Democrats by now. It's a white minority district (46%) that stretches from Tracy, Manteca, Ripon and Riverbank in the north down through Modesto and Patterson to Turlock. Obama won it both times and in 2016 Hillary beat Trump 48.5% to 45.5%. The PVI went from R1 to EVEN.

We haven't spent enough time talking about CA-10, an important district that the DCCC has failed over and over again to rescue from Republican hands. A Central Valley district primarily in Stanislaus County, with a substantial part of San Joaquin as well, the district is represented by a knee-jerk Republican backbencher, Jeff Denham, an odd fit in a minority majority district. CA-10, just east of San Jose, gave Obama wins both times he ran and, albeit by a smaller margin, went for Hillary over Trump last year, 48.5% to 45.5%.

Back in February 34% of Americans were very confident that Ryan's plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act would make healthcare better. Does that sound like a small number of people?

A staffer at the DCCC called me the other day out of the blue-- me... who usually has some pretty unkind words for the committee-- and asked me if I knew anyone who wanted to run against Jeff Denham in CA-10, a district at the northern end of the Central Valley that includes Modesto, Turlock, Manteca, Ripon and Tracy. It's a nice blue district east of San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose. Obama beat McCain there 50-48% and beat Romney 51-47%. Even Hillary won, albeit without a majority: 48.5% to 45.5%.

Anger at the DCCC is spreading. Well, anger at the DCCC has been huge for over a decade; that it's being talked about more openly and more aggressively at the grassroots level is what's different. Chris Van Hollen and Steve Israel lost dozens and dozens of Democratic House seats (incumbents) and ruined the chances of even more Democratic challengers trying to beat Republicans.

Route 99, the Golden State Highway, splits off from the 5 Freeway just south of Bakersfield in southern California and stretches north to include a straight path through the Central Valley-- including all of CA-16 and all of CA-10, way into the north where it merges with the 5 again at Red Bluff.