T.A. Frank offered an interesting theory that would-- if true-- put a damper on Trump's celebrations at the passage of his Tax Scam-- or, more appropriately Paul Ryan's Tax Scam, at 1:30 AM Friday night/Saturday morning, as the country snoozed. It's right up there with the theory that Paul Ryan may be about to resign, having accomplished all that he could be reasonably expected to towards towards the dismantling of the New Deal. Here's Frank's premise:
[P]assage of this bill marks the end of Trump’s presidency. Trump (along with his supporters) seems to feel that triumphing on taxes will give him the momentum to move onto other great things. It won’t. It will offer Republicans the chance to abandon him. More than anything, this piece of legislation is what Republicans needed from the president. Trump has been a building fire that Republicans wouldn’t put out because they needed it to light their cigars. But now the G.O.P. has got what it wanted. It can puff and move along.
Wishful thinking? Purposeful delusion? Frank has some good points to make. Certainly many Republicans in Congress-- and their supporters-- detest Trump and fear what's he's doing to their comfy little party. Señor Trumpanzee "might think what comes next," he wrote, "is his wall or maybe even-- who knows how much he dreams?-- an infrastructure bill. These won’t happen. His leverage with his party will be spent. Even minor reforms to immigration policy are unlikely to happen. Trump is reportedly set to appoint Tom Cotton, the lone immigration wonk among Republicans in the Senate, to the C.I.A., where Cotton will abandon domestic legislation in favor of foreign-threat assessments. With his reputation for hawkishness, Cotton will, as the joke goes, fill a much-needed void. With Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, nothing is brash or loud. He won’t denounce Trump in fiery orations. We’ll just notice that Trump’s enemies seem to be having easier time circling in on him. The car that was parked in the path of the fire truck yesterday will have moved mysteriously to the side. McConnell will clear his throat and look the other way as Trump’s foes charge through. Trump might have no choice but to push through this bill, and he no doubt likes what it does. But tax cuts were also Trump’s bargaining chip in dealing with the G.O.P. He’s about to let that chip go, just as the G.O.P. is about to let Trump go."Are they? Are they really? Go? Like in a dozen GOP senators voting to find him guilty when the Democratic-controlled House impeaches him 2019? I hope Frank is right. But I doubt it, other than around the fringes for self-protection. Republicans may feel freer to weigh the pros and cons of sticking with Trump now-- meaning what will hurt more, a Bannon-backed primary or angry independents in the general election?
