On June 30, leading global news agencies announced (with reference to the Japanese Ministry of Defense) that in “mid July” Japan is planning to post an international tender for the procurement of about 100 fifth generation jet fighters to upgrade the country’s air forces. The winner will be announced “in the summer of 2018.” According to the contract, the last delivery of jets should occur “before the end of the 2020s.”.
Majority of those commenting on the news stress the anti-Chinese nature of the forthcoming bidding. However, it might have other implications echoing the current general trends (mostly negative) typical of the situation in the Pacific Rim.
First of all, lately, all leading countries of the region have been demonstrating interest in the replacement of outdated military equipment.
However, it would be too premature (at least for the time being) to use the emotionally loaded word “militarization” in reference to this process. For example, Japan has been allocating for its defense needs only about 1% of its GDP (in relative terms), remaining the global “smallest defense budget” champion for decades.
Thus, this trend merely demonstrates that the key regional powers do not mind spending money on the rearmament of their armed forces (within the limits of the approved defense budgets). Besides, this process will be gradual and will take at least ten years to complete. Of course, this is a poor consolation, which does not make the situation in the Pacific Rim any more optimistic.
Judging by the level of prices currently charged for the new generation of armaments, Japan will have to pay a huge amount of money (about $40 bn) for the jets.
Ten years ago, another international tender for the supply of 126 MMRCA (Medium Multy-Role Combat Aircrafts) issued by India was dubbed “unprecedented” and “colossal.” Its initial bid price was set at $8-12 bn. However, when the French company Dassault Aviation, which was shortlisted for the bid in 2012, estimated the actual cost of production, it raised the total amount to $20-25 bn. That caused India to put on hold the implementation of the MMRCA program (India still maintains this position).
There was another tender for the supply of 12 new generation conventional submarines where the Australian Navy was planning to spend $43 bn. At the end of April, the tender winner was announced. It was the largest French defense contractor DCNS, which beat its competitors from Japan and Germany.
Second, although such giants as European consortium Eurofighter and Swedish Saab participate in the tender issued by the Japanese Defense Ministry, most likely either Loсkheed Martin or Boeing—leading US defense companies—will win the contract for the supply of jets. Such outcome would be in line with the current trend toward the strengthening of the US-Japanese military and political affiliation.
The US, being Japan’s key ally, is interested (for obvious reasons) in the reinforcement of the bilateral relations. One way to do that is to align the systems of armaments of both armies.
At this point, experts believe that the fifth generation Lockheed Martin F-35 jet fighter will outbid other candidates. This forecast appears to be well grounded since, despite a number of identified design deficiencies (including the problem with the fighter’s one-engine conceptual design), F-35 has already entered the batch production stage.
In the mid 2015, a Mitsubishi department began assembling the first four F-35 fighters. In accordance with the agreement signed in December 2011, the total of 42 jet fighters will be produced. Overtime, there should be a gradual increase in the number of parts manufactured locally at Mitsubishi plants.
Mitsubishi Corporation accumulated vast experience in the domain of licensed production of equipment developed by US defense companies. Today, the fleet of the Japanese Air Force consists of the fighters built by Mitsubishi to the upgraded models designed in the US.
Experts, however, do not rule out that the Japanese Ministry of Defense might pick another fighter model designed by a tandem of Mitsubishi and one of the two US defense giants. There is a possibility that the experimental Japanese strike fighter X-2, which has recently completed its first trial flight, could be used as a prototype.
Such finalization of the forthcoming tender, including the possibility of Japanese companies to join the ranks of global defense contractors in the nearest year or two, would be in line with the general trend of development of the Japanese defense industry.
Mentioning China in the headlines of articles devoted to the forthcoming tender appears to be quite logical. Tokyo actually holds that its rearmament program is politically motivated as China is rapidly reequipping its army with advanced weaponry (for example, fifth generation jet fighters J-20 are scheduled to enter service with the Chinese Air Force in the foreseeable future).
And the aspirations of the Japanese military fit very well into an overall gloomy picture depicting the situation in East Asia.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”
